耐普矿机（300818）：业绩短期承压，持续提升海外产能

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for future performance [6]. Core Views - The company experienced a significant decline in revenue and net profit in the first half of 2025, with revenue dropping by 34.0% year-on-year to 410 million yuan and net profit decreasing by 79.9% to 17 million yuan [1]. - The decline in revenue is primarily attributed to a substantial reduction in EPC project income, although excluding this income, the revenue only decreased by 3.0% [2]. - The company is focusing on enhancing its overseas production capacity, with five overseas bases under construction, which is expected to support future growth [4]. - Profitability metrics show a mixed performance, with a gross margin increase to 38.5% but a net profit margin decline to 4.1% due to rising R&D and sales expenses [2]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In H1 2025, the company reported revenue of 410 million yuan, a 34.0% decrease year-on-year, and a net profit of 17 million yuan, down 79.9% [1]. - Q2 2025 figures show revenue of 220 million yuan, a 42.0% decline year-on-year, while net profit was 11 million yuan, down 74.9% [1]. - The comprehensive gross margin for H1 2025 was 38.5%, up 3.5 percentage points year-on-year, while the net profit margin fell by 9.4 percentage points [2]. Product and Regional Breakdown - Revenue from mining rubber wear parts was 290 million yuan, down 2.6% year-on-year, with a gross margin of 40.3% [3]. - The company achieved 40 million yuan in revenue from mineral processing equipment, a 9.0% decline, with a gross margin of 27.1% [3]. - Domestic revenue was 190 million yuan, down 4.9%, while international revenue was 230 million yuan, down 47.3% [3]. Capacity Expansion and Future Outlook - The company is progressing with its overseas production bases, aiming for a total capacity of 3 billion yuan, which is expected to enhance its market presence in regions like Latin America and Africa [4]. - The net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 have been adjusted downward by 33.4%, 20.8%, and 14.5%, respectively, reflecting lower expectations for mining machinery demand [4]. Valuation Metrics - The current stock price corresponds to a PE ratio of 48 for 2025, 32 for 2026, and 24 for 2027, indicating a favorable valuation outlook based on growth potential [4].