Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - Today, precious metals fluctuated upwards, with the main contract of Shanghai gold closing up 1.31% and the main contract of Shanghai silver closing up 0.15%. It is expected that precious metals will fluctuate upwards in the short - term, oscillate at high levels in the medium - term, and rise step - by - step in the long - term. The strategy is for conservative investors to wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy low and sell high. It is recommended to manage positions well and set strict stop - loss and take - profit levels [2]. - The price trend of gold is the anchor for the price of silver. In terms of capital, the net long positions of CFTC silver and iShare silver ETF slightly reduced. In terms of inventory, the recent visible inventory of silver slightly increased [5]. Summary by Directory 1. Gold - Core Logic: In the short - term, regarding risk aversion, although trade agreements are being reached in batches, concerns about European and American debts and the independence of the Federal Reserve have resurfaced. The risk of stagflation in the US economy has increased, with employment weakening and inflation being moderate, leading to a rebound in the expectation of the Fed's interest rate cuts. In terms of the risk - aversion attribute, the yield of the US 30 - year Treasury bond rose to the highest level since mid - July, following the trends in European and British bond markets, as investors worried that governments of major economies were losing control of fiscal deficits. Trump's attempt to fire Fed Governor Cook, and Cook's lawsuit against Trump for overstepping his authority, raised concerns about the Fed's independence. In terms of the monetary attribute, Powell hinted that the Fed might need to cut interest rates but would act cautiously. He announced the Fed's new policy framework, returning to a flexible inflation target. The US manufacturing PMI has shrunk for six consecutive months, and factories said that tariffs have made the situation worse than during the Great Recession. Currently, the market's expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut in September has soared from 40% before the July non - farm payrolls to about 90%, and the expected number of interest rate cuts within the year has increased from 1 to 2 - 3 times. The US dollar index and Treasury bond yields fluctuated strongly. In terms of the commodity attribute, the rebound of the CRB commodity index was under pressure, and the depreciation of the RMB was beneficial to domestic prices [2]. - Data: - Prices: Comex gold's main contract closed at $3599.50 per ounce, up 2.37% from the previous day and 4.54% from the previous week; London gold was at $3490.00 per ounce, up 0.43% from the previous day and 3.65% from the previous week; the main contract of Shanghai gold closed at 814.88 yuan per gram, up 1.31% from the previous day and 4.32% from the previous week; gold T + D closed at 809.97 yuan per gram, up 1.27% from the previous day and 4.16% from the previous week [2]. - Positions and Inventories: Comex gold positions were 443,760 lots, down 0.54% from the previous week; Shanghai gold's main contract positions were 142,330 lots, up 2.67% from the previous day and down 14.57% from the previous week; gold TD positions were 221,198 lots, up 1.73% from the previous day and 10.56% from the previous week. LBMA inventory was 8,598 tons, unchanged; Comex gold inventory was 1,152 tons, down 1.08% from the previous week; Shanghai gold inventory was 18 tons, up 1.32% from the previous week [2]. - Net Positions of Futures Companies: Among the top 10 net - long positions of Shanghai gold futures companies at the Shanghai Futures Exchange, the top 5 totaled 118,272 lots, an increase of 266 lots; the top 10 totaled 153,498 lots, a decrease of 146 lots; the top 20 totaled 195,167 lots, an increase of 1,757 lots. Among the top 10 net - short positions, the top 5 totaled 15,049 lots, an increase of 356 lots; the top 10 totaled 21,936 lots, an increase of 540 lots; the top 20 totaled 26,248 lots, an increase of 964 lots [3]. 2. Silver - Core Logic: The price trend of gold is the anchor for the price of silver. In terms of capital, the net long positions of CFTC silver and iShare silver ETF slightly reduced. In terms of inventory, the recent visible inventory of silver slightly increased [5]. - Data: - Prices: Comex silver's main contract closed at $41.73 per ounce, up 2.40% from the previous day and 7.84% from the previous week; London silver was at $40.52 per ounce, down 0.14% from the previous day and up 5.47% from the previous week; the main contract of Shanghai silver closed at 9,820 yuan per kilogram, down 0.04% from the previous day and up 5.53% from the previous week; silver T + D closed at 9,780 yuan per kilogram, down 0.20% from the previous day and up 5.60% from the previous week [6]. - Positions and Inventories: Comex silver positions were 158,630 lots, up 0.10% from the previous week; Shanghai silver's main contract positions were 4,996,200 lots, up 0.69% from the previous day and 18.68% from the previous week; silver TD positions were 3,489,224 lots, down 0.03% from the previous day and up 4.02% from the previous week. The visible inventory totaled 42,796 tons, up 0.90% from the previous week [6]. - Net Positions of Futures Companies: Among the top 10 net - long positions of Shanghai silver futures companies at the Shanghai Futures Exchange, the top 5 totaled 119,197 lots, an increase of 868 lots; the top 10 totaled 165,732 lots, an increase of 2,404 lots; the top 20 totaled 210,707 lots, an increase of 5,979 lots. Among the top 10 net - short positions, the top 5 totaled 48,371 lots, an increase of 1,638 lots; the top 10 totaled 77,222 lots, a decrease of 254 lots; the top 20 totaled 100,335 lots, a decrease of 1,599 lots [7]. 3. Fundamental Key Data - Federal Reserve - related Data: The upper limit of the federal funds target rate is 4.50%, the discount rate is 4.50%, the reserve balance interest rate (IORB) is 4.40%, and the Fed's total assets are $665.4234 billion, down $1.5239 billion from the previous value. M2 (year - on - year) is 4.82%, up 0.60 percentage points [8]. - Other Key Indicators: The 10 - year US Treasury real yield is 2.59, up 1.97% from the previous day and the previous week; the US dollar index is 98.32, up 0.63% from the previous day and 0.12% from the previous week; the US Treasury yield spread (3 - month - 10 - year) is 0.54, down 15.63% from the previous day [8]. - Interest Rate Expectations: According to the CME FedWatch tool, the market's expectations of the Fed's interest rate cuts in different meetings from September 2025 to December 2026 are presented in a table, showing the probabilities of different interest - rate ranges [12].
山金期货贵金属策略报告-20250903
Shan Jin Qi Huo·2025-09-03 11:12