Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-09-03 11:08Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - Corn: In the US, although the estimated corn production in 2025 is expected to reach a record high, it is still lower than the USDA's August forecast, adding expectations of a later USDA production cut. In the domestic market, with the approaching new - season corn listing in the Northeast, the continuous release of reserve - rotated corn, weakened confidence of traders, and sufficient stockpiles of grain - using enterprises, the corn market has weak trading and prices are in a weak adjustment. The corn market is under pressure [2]. - Corn Starch: During the transition period between old and new corn, some enterprises have limited production and maintenance, leading to a decline in the industry's operating rate. Supply pressure has decreased, demand has slightly improved, and inventory pressure has declined. However, the industry inventory is still high, and the substitution advantages of cassava starch and wheat starch are still good, squeezing the demand for corn starch. The starch market remains in a low - level oscillation and is still regarded as bearish [3]. 3. Summary by Directory Futures Market - Corn: The closing price of the active corn futures contract is 2193 yuan/ton, down 63 yuan; the 1 - 5 monthly spread is 94 yuan/ton; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 72743 hands; the registered warehouse receipt volume is 65202 hands; the CS - C spread of the main contract is 215 yuan/ton [2]. - Corn Starch: The closing price of the active corn starch futures contract is 2487 yuan/ton, down 33 yuan; the 11 - 1 monthly spread is 204 yuan/ton; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 40051 hands; the registered warehouse receipt volume is 7450 hands [2]. Outer Market - The closing price of the active CBOT corn futures contract is 423 cents/bushel; the total weekly position is 1456701 contracts, down 109666 contracts; the non - commercial net long position is 34270 contracts, down 70940 contracts [2]. Spot Market - Corn: The average spot price is 2363.73 yuan/ton, up 0.4 yuan; the FOB price at Jinzhou Port is 2290 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan; the CIF price of imported corn is 1930.38 yuan/ton, up 0.86 yuan; the international freight of imported corn is 0 dollars/ton; the basis of the main corn contract is 170.73 yuan/ton, up 7.4 yuan [2]. - Corn Starch: The ex - factory prices in Changchun, Weifang, and Shijiazhuang are 2660 yuan/ton, 2900 yuan/ton, and 2830 yuan/ton respectively, with no change; the basis of the main corn starch contract is 173 yuan/ton, up 18 yuan; the spread between Shandong starch and corn is 370 yuan/ton, up 34 yuan; the spread between cassava starch and corn starch is 184 yuan/ton, up 27 yuan; the spread between corn starch and 30 - powder is - 67 yuan/ton, with no change [2]. Upstream Situation - The predicted sown areas of corn in the US, Brazil, Argentina, and China are 39.893 million hectares, 35.12 million hectares, 5.3 million hectares, and an unspecified amount respectively; the predicted yields are 162.04 billion bushels (US), 131 million tons (Brazil), 7.5 million tons (Argentina), 295 million tons (China), and 30.5 million tons (Ukraine) [2]. - The corn inventory at southern ports is 770,000 tons, down 280,000 tons; the inventory of deep - processed corn is 2942,000 tons, down 205,000 tons; the inventory at northern ports is 1750,000 tons; the monthly import volume of corn is 60,000 tons, down 10,000 tons [2]. Industry Situation - The monthly export volume of corn starch is 15,940 tons, up 1440 tons; the monthly feed production is 28273,000 tons, down 110,400 tons; the sample feed corn inventory days are 28.13 days, down 0.72 days; the deep - processed corn consumption is 11402,000 tons, up 4000 tons [2]. Downstream Situation - The alcohol enterprise operating rate is 42.87%, down 0.7%; the starch enterprise operating rate is 47.7%, down 3.31%; the corn starch processing profits in Shandong, Hebei, and Jilin are - 130 yuan/ton, - 60 yuan/ton, and - 110 yuan/ton respectively, down 8 yuan/ton, 9 yuan/ton, and 29 yuan/ton [2]. Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of corn is 7.48%, up 0.01%; the 60 - day historical volatility is 6.3%, down 0.02%; the implied volatility of at - the - money call options for corn is 9.68%, down 0.34%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for corn is 9.67%, down 0.35% [2]. Industry News - As of August 31, in 18 states accounting for 92% of the country's corn - sown area, the proportion of US corn in the dough stage was 90%, up from 83% a week ago, compared with 89% in the same period last year [2]. - As of the week ending August 28, 2025, the US corn export inspection volume was 1,407,050 tons, up from the revised 1,338,532 tons last week and 966,544 tons in the same period last year [2]. - Pro Farmer's final production forecast report shows that the total US corn production in 2025 is expected to reach 16.204 billion bushels, with an average yield of 182.7 bushels per acre, lower than the USDA's August forecast [2].