Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-09-03 11:28Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The current stock market is in a volatile adjustment, with market risk appetite slightly declining, leading to a phased recovery in the bond market. However, its fluctuation rhythm is still restricted by the stock - bond "seesaw" effect. If the upward momentum of the equity market weakens and the continuous upward trend ends, it may create favorable conditions for the bond market to have an independent market. - As the market's expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut in September continues to rise, attention should be paid to China's fundamental data performance in August. If the economic data continues to weaken, it may boost the market's expectation of overall easing policies. - Operationally, it is recommended to wait and see for the time being [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - Futures Prices and Volumes: T, TF, TS, and TL main contract closing prices increased by 0.21%, 0.17%, 0.04%, and 0.46% respectively, and trading volumes increased by 26100, 9741, 4112, and 40760 respectively. - Futures Spreads: Some spreads such as TL2512 - 2509, T12 - TL12, TF12 - T12, etc. showed different changes, with some narrowing and some widening. - Futures Positions: The main contract positions of T, TF, TS, and TL all increased, and the net short positions of the top 20 in each contract also increased [2]. 3.2 Bond Market - CTD Bonds: The net prices of several CTD bonds such as 220019.IB, 220017.IB, etc. increased. - Active Bonds: The yields of 1y - 10y active bonds decreased, with a decline of 0.1 - 0.75bp [2]. 3.3 Interest Rates - Short - term Interest Rates: Silver - pledged overnight, Shibor overnight, silver - pledged 7 - day, and Shibor 7 - day interest rates increased, while Shibor 14 - day interest rate decreased. - LPR Rates: The 1y and 5y LPR rates remained unchanged [2]. 3.4 Open Market Operations The issuance scale of open - market operations was 229.1 billion yuan, the maturity scale was 379.9 billion yuan, and the interest rate was 1.4% for 7 - day operations, with a net withdrawal of 150.8 billion yuan [2]. 3.5 Industry News - China's economic prosperity level continued to expand in August. The official manufacturing PMI, non - manufacturing PMI, and composite PMI were 49.4%, 50.3%, and 50.5% respectively, with month - on - month increases. - The Ministry of Finance and the State Taxation Administration issued a notice on the tax policy for the operation and management of state - owned equity and cash income transferred to enrich the social security fund, exempting VAT on certain income. - The "Implementation Plan for the Fiscal Interest Subsidy Policy for Personal Consumption Loans" was officially implemented on September 1st, and some bank executives were optimistic about its impact [2]. 3.6 Key Data to Watch - On September 4th, 20:15, the US ADP employment number for August (in ten thousand people). - On September 5th, 20:30, the US seasonally adjusted non - farm payrolls for August (in ten thousand people) [3].