宏观经济点评：人民币汇率或将迎震荡升值

Group 1: Currency Trends - The RMB has appreciated against the USD since August, with a 2.3% increase compared to a 10% depreciation of the USD index in the first eight months of 2025[3] - The CFETS RMB exchange rate index fell by approximately 6% from January to June 2025 but rebounded to 96.57 in June, indicating a recovery[3] - The recent appreciation of the RMB is viewed as a "catch-up" due to a weaker USD environment[3] Group 2: Market Influences - The domestic equity market has warmed up since August, with major indices showing significant gains, attracting foreign capital and increasing RMB demand[4] - The dovish stance of the Federal Reserve, particularly the anticipated 25 basis point rate cut in September, has contributed to a stable external environment for the RMB[4] - Seasonal factors, such as the peak dividend season for Hong Kong stocks, and a slight narrowing of the China-US interest rate differential have also supported the RMB's rise[4] Group 3: Future Outlook - The RMB is expected to continue appreciating but may experience short-term volatility due to uncertainties in global economic policies, particularly in Japan[6] - From January to July 2025, China accumulated a trade surplus of nearly $700 billion, but the average settlement rate was only 52.75%, below the 2018 average[6] - If the domestic equity market continues to perform well, it may lead to an increase in the settlement rate, further supporting RMB demand[6] - Long-term RMB exchange rate trends will depend on the recovery of the domestic economy, and rapid appreciation may prompt the central bank to intervene to maintain stability[7]