Great Wall Securities·2025-09-03 11:36Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Alibaba Group [4] Core Views - Alibaba's collaboration between Taobao Flash Sale and its main e-commerce platform shows significant synergy, leading to a notable increase in user engagement and transaction volume [2] - The cloud business revenue growth exceeded expectations, driven by advancements in AI applications and the development of new AI chips [3] - The company is expected to achieve substantial revenue growth in the coming years, with projected revenues of 1.06 trillion, 1.18 trillion, and 1.30 trillion yuan for FY2026, FY2027, and FY2028 respectively [8] Financial Summary - For FY2024A, the company is projected to have a revenue of 941.17 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 8.34% [9] - The adjusted net profit for FY2024A is estimated at 79.74 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 9.97% [9] - The company plans to maintain a capital expenditure (CAPEX) of 380 billion yuan over the next three years, indicating a strong commitment to investment in growth [3] - The cloud business achieved a revenue of 333.98 billion yuan in FY26Q1, marking a year-on-year increase of 25.80% [3] User Engagement and Market Position - Taobao Flash Sale has reached a peak daily order volume of 120 million, significantly boosting the overall user activity on the Taobao platform [2] - The monthly active users for Flash Sale have grown by 200% since its launch, indicating strong market penetration [2] - The report highlights that Alibaba is uniquely positioned among domestic competitors with a comprehensive layout in chips, cloud computing, large models, and downstream applications [3]