Report Industry Investment Ratings - Copper: ★☆☆ [1] - Aluminum: ☆☆☆ [1] - Alumina: ★☆☆ [1] - Cast Aluminum Alloy: ☆☆☆ [1] - Zinc: ★☆☆ [1] - Tin: ★☆★ [1] - Lithium Carbonate: ★☆☆ [1] - Industrial Silicon: ★☆☆ [1] - Polysilicon: ★☆☆ [1] Core Views - The copper market's trading sentiment has been boosted by the rise of precious metals, and short - term trading is also affected by the Fed's potential September rate cut and domestic refined copper consumption substitution. The market is still cautious about the peak season. Short - term long positions should be held based on the MA5 moving average, and attention should be paid to the change in the premium of the call option with a strike price of 82,000 for the 2510 contract [2]. - The downstream开工 of aluminum has been seasonally rising for four consecutive weeks, and the inventory is likely to be low this year, but the inflection point of aluminum ingot inventory accumulation is not clear. Shanghai aluminum will maintain a short - term shock, with resistance in the 21,000 yuan area. The price difference between scrap aluminum and Shanghai aluminum may further narrow. Alumina production capacity is at a historical high, and the industry is in a weak operation [3]. - Zinc prices are supported in the short - term due to the expected decrease in smelter output in September and low inventories in the outer market. However, the mid - line short - allocation idea remains unchanged, waiting for short - selling opportunities in the 23,000 - 23,500 yuan/ton range [4]. - The supply pressure of aluminum is slightly reduced, but the terminal consumption has not improved fundamentally. The price will maintain a short - term shock in the 16,600 - 17,300 yuan/ton range [6]. - The price of nickel has rebounded due to the expected impact of political unrest in Indonesia on nickel production. The inventory of pure nickel, nickel iron, and stainless steel has decreased. The short - term trend of Shanghai nickel is volatile [7]. - The tin market has the theme of concentrate shortage, but attention should be paid to the changes in social inventory and funds. Short - term long positions should be held based on 271,000 [8]. - After the price of lithium carbonate dropped rapidly, downstream buyers took the opportunity to receive goods, and traders increased their inventory. The overall sentiment is low, and the trend is volatile [9]. - The supply surplus of industrial silicon will intensify in September, and the price is expected to be volatile and weak [10]. - The polysilicon futures fluctuate around 52,000 yuan/ton. After the price increase, attention should be paid to the actual transaction. Before the new policy details are disclosed, the PS2511 price is expected to be under pressure at 53,000 yuan/ton [11] Summaries by Related Catalogs Copper - Wednesday, Shanghai copper broke through 80,000 yuan but gave back the gains. The spot copper price was raised to 80,520 yuan, and the premium in Shanghai was 190 yuan [2] Aluminum & Alumina - Shanghai aluminum fluctuated today, and the spot discount in various places remained. The downstream开工 has been rising seasonally for four consecutive weeks, and the inventory is likely to be low this year, but the inflection point of aluminum ingot inventory accumulation is not clear. The short - term trend of Shanghai aluminum is volatile, with resistance in the 21,000 yuan area. The price of cast aluminum alloy follows the fluctuation of Shanghai aluminum, and the spot price of Baotai remains at 20,300 yuan. The supply of scrap aluminum is tight, and the expected adjustment of the tax rate policy increases the enterprise cost. The price difference between the spot and Shanghai aluminum may further narrow. The operating capacity of alumina is at a historical high, and the impact of major events in the north is very limited. The industry inventory and the warehouse receipts of the Shanghai Futures Exchange are both rising [3] Zinc - In September, the output of smelters is expected to decrease month - on - month, which forms a short - term resonance with the low inventory in the outer market, supporting the zinc price. The demand expectation is mixed, and the short - term trend of Shanghai zinc is volatile. The increase in ore supply is being continuously realized, and the mid - line short - allocation idea remains unchanged, waiting for short - selling opportunities in the 23,000 - 23,500 yuan/ton range [4] Tin - Shanghai tin fluctuated and closed down. The spot tin price was reported at 273,100 yuan. The domestic tin market has the theme of concentrate shortage, but attention should be paid to the changes in social inventory and funds. Short - term long positions should be held based on 271,000 [8] Lithium Carbonate - The price of lithium carbonate fluctuated weakly. After the price dropped rapidly, downstream buyers took the opportunity to receive goods, and traders increased their inventory by 2,000 tons to 45,000 tons. The mid - stream continues to bet on price increases, and the transfer of goods is mainly from upstream to downstream. The latest quotation of Australian ore is 880 US dollars, and the ore price has slightly adjusted. The overall sentiment is low, and the trend is volatile [9] Industrial Silicon - The industrial silicon futures closed slightly down. The weekly output in Xinjiang continues to increase, and the production in Sichuan and Yunnan is expected to be reduced at the end of October. The output of downstream polysilicon and organic silicon is expected to decrease. The supply surplus contradiction will intensify in September, and the price is expected to be volatile and weak [10] Polysilicon - The polysilicon futures fluctuate around 52,000 yuan/ton, and the average price of spot M - type dense material is 50,000 yuan/ton. In the last week of August, the downstream concentrated procurement volume increased. After the price increase, attention should be paid to the actual transaction. Before the new policy details are disclosed, the PS2511 price is expected to be under pressure at 53,000 yuan/ton [11]
有色金属日报-20250903
Guo Tou Qi Huo·2025-09-03 13:12