化工日报-20250903

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Urea: ★★★ (interpreted as a relatively clear upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently) [1] - Methanol: ★★★ [1] - Pure Benzene: ★★★ [1] - Styrene: ☆☆☆ (interpreted as the short - term long/short trend being in a relatively balanced state, with poor operability on the current market, suggesting to wait and see) [1] - Polypropylene: ★★★ [1] - Plastic: ☆☆☆ [1] - PVC: ★★★ [1] - Caustic Soda: ☆☆☆ [1] - PX: ★★★ [1] - PTA: ☆☆☆ [1] - Ethylene Glycol: ★★★ [1] - Short - fiber: ☆☆☆ [1] - Glass: ★★★ [1] - Soda Ash: ★★★ [1] - Bottle Chips: ★★★ [1] - Propylene: ★★★ [1] Core Viewpoints - The chemical futures market shows complex trends, with different products having different supply - demand situations and price trends. Some products are affected by factors such as inventory, production capacity, seasonal demand, and policy expectations [2][3][5]. - For products like methanol and urea, although the current supply is abundant and the market is weak, there are expectations of improvement in the future due to factors such as downstream demand recovery and pre - holiday stocking [6]. - Some products, such as soda ash and glass, are in a situation of high inventory and weak reality, but also have low - valuation characteristics, and their price trends need to be judged based on different market conditions [8]. Summary by Related Catalogs Olefins - Polyolefins - Propylene futures fluctuate narrowly. Enterprises' inventory is low, and offers continue to rise, but high - price transactions are limited [2]. - Polyolefin futures also fluctuate narrowly. Polyethylene supply increases, and demand enters the traditional peak season. Polypropylene supply is relatively loose, and the actual demand recovers slowly [2]. Pure Benzene - Pure benzene returns to above 6000 yuan/ton at night and fluctuates narrowly during the day. Supply increases, demand is weak, and the port inventory accumulates. The market may improve in the third quarter [3]. - Styrene futures get support at the previous low. The cost support is insufficient, and the supply - demand situation is average with high inventory at the terminal [3]. Polyester - PX continues to be weak, and PTA falls with increased positions. The terminal orders increase, but the actual improvement is limited. PX lacks support [5]. - Ethylene glycol fluctuates narrowly at a low level. Supply increases, and the supply - demand situation is weakly stable. There are both supply pressure and demand improvement factors in the medium - term [5]. - Short - fiber supply - demand is stable, and the price fluctuates with the cost. New capacity is limited this year, and the industry expectation is boosted by the peak - season demand [5]. - Bottle chips industry has long - term over - capacity pressure, and the processing margin runs at a low level [5]. Coal Chemical Industry - Methanol imports remain high, and the port inventory accumulates rapidly. Supply increases, but the market expectation is strong due to downstream demand recovery and pre - holiday stocking [6]. - Urea price drops significantly. Supply is sufficient, and the market may oscillate weakly before new positive factors appear [6]. Chlor - alkali - PVC fluctuates narrowly. Supply pressure is high, and demand is weak. The price may oscillate weakly [7]. - Caustic soda price weakens. The inventory situation varies in different regions. The price is relatively firm but may oscillate widely [7]. Soda Ash - Glass - Soda ash oscillates. The supply is high, and the inventory is high. It is recommended to short at high - rebound levels, but be cautious at low - valuation levels [8]. - Glass oscillates. The spot price varies, and the factory inventory decreases. The demand is weak, but the price decline may be limited due to low valuation [8]