Guoxin Securities·2025-09-03 13:42Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [5][18]. Core Views - The company experienced a 45% decline in net profit year-on-year, with a total revenue of 58.8 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, representing a 25% increase [1][8]. - The core net profit, excluding minority interests and fair value changes of investment properties and financial derivatives, fell by 71% to 1.3 billion yuan [1][8]. - The real estate development segment saw a revenue increase of 35% to 45.5 billion yuan, while the operational and service segments reported revenues of 7 billion and 6.3 billion yuan, respectively, with growth rates of 3% and 0% [1][8]. Summary by Sections Sales Performance - In the first half of 2025, the company sold 2.61 million square meters, a decrease of 28.5% year-on-year, with sales amounting to 35 billion yuan, down 31.5% [2][10]. - Sales distribution by region showed that the Western, Yangtze River Delta, Bohai Rim, South China, and Central China accounted for 28%, 27%, 24%, 12%, and 10% of total sales, respectively, with first and second-tier cities making up 89% of sales [2][10]. Land Acquisition and Reserves - The company acquired 4 new land parcels with a total construction area of 250,000 square meters and a land cost of 1.5 billion yuan [2][10]. - As of the end of the first half of 2025, the total land reserve was 28.4 million square meters, with an average land cost of 4,207 yuan per square meter [2][10]. Financial Health - The company reported a debt-to-asset ratio of 56% and a net debt ratio of 51% as of the end of the first half of 2025, with a cash-to-short-term debt ratio of 1.74 [2][12]. - The company has no public debt maturing in 2025 and has 5.9 billion yuan of domestic debt maturing in 2026 [2][12]. Operational Performance - The operational and service segments showed revenue growth of 3% and 0%, with gross margins of 77.7% and 30.0%, respectively [3][15]. - The company operates 89 shopping malls with a total area of 9.43 million square meters, generating rental income of 5.5 billion yuan, a 5% increase year-on-year, with an occupancy rate of 97% [3][15]. Profit Forecasts - The company has adjusted its profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026, expecting revenues of 105 billion and 89 billion yuan, with net profits of 5.3 billion and 5.5 billion yuan, respectively [3][4]. - The expected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 and 2026 are 0.76 yuan and 0.79 yuan, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 11.5 and 11.1 [3][4].