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粕类日报:供应压力好转,价格阶段性反弹-20250903
Yin He Qi Huo·2025-09-03 13:51

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The report does not provide an industry investment rating. 2. Core View The domestic soybean meal futures market has rebounded slightly due to cost - side support, but the rebound space may be limited. The soybean meal market is expected to fluctuate at a low level. The rapeseed meal market has shown average performance, with limited price decline space. The price of both soybean meal and rapeseed meal is expected to have limited up - and - down space in the near term [4][8]. 3. Summary by Content 3.1 Market Quotes - Futures and Spot Market: On September 3, 2025, the US soybean futures rebounded slightly, and the domestic soybean meal futures continued to rebound. Rapeseed meal futures mainly fluctuated. The monthly spreads of both soybean meal and rapeseed meal also fluctuated. The spot price of soybean meal and rapeseed meal showed a rebound trend after earlier weakness [4]. - Price Differences: The 15 - spread of soybean meal increased by 5 to 245, and the 15 - spread of rapeseed meal increased by 9 to 115. The spot price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal decreased by 16 to 380 [4]. 3.2 Fundamental Analysis - US Soybeans: The old - crop balance sheet of US soybeans is clearly bullish, with lower ending stocks. The new - crop supply is tightened due to a large reduction in planting area. The new - crop cumulative exports are slow, and the new - crop stock - to - use ratio may not show significant bullishness at the current price level [5]. - South American Soybeans: The old - crop supply in South America is relatively loose. The soybean production of major exporting countries is expected to increase by 15.39 million tons, and the crushing volume will increase by 8.21 million tons. The overall supply pressure of international soybean meal is obvious, with an expected increase of 21.536 million tons in soybean crushing volume in major producing areas [5]. - Domestic Market: The domestic spot market is relatively loose, with high oil - mill operating rates and sufficient supply. As of August 29, the actual soybean crushing volume of oil mills was 2.4254 million tons, and the operating rate was 68.18%. The demand for domestic rapeseed meal has weakened, and the supply pressure remains [7]. 3.3 Macro - analysis The negotiation between China and the US in London has ended without clear information. The market is still worried about supply uncertainty. Although the macro - disturbances are decreasing, the short - term soybean price is not likely to drop significantly due to China's high demand for US soybeans [8]. 3.4 Logic Analysis The domestic soybean meal futures have rebounded slightly under cost - side support, but the rebound space is limited. The market lacks clear directional guidance and is expected to fluctuate at a low level. The rapeseed meal price is not likely to drop deeply, and the monthly spreads have support at the bottom [8]. 3.5 Trading Strategies - Single - side Trading: It is recommended to buy on dips for the 05 contract. - Arbitrage: Go long on the MRM05 spread on dips. - Options: Buy call options [9].