螺纹热卷日报-20250903

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The black metal sector maintained a weak and volatile trend today, with overall spot trading volume being generally weak and slightly weaker than yesterday [8]. - Affected by the military parade, building materials production decreased, but hot - rolled coil production increased. Steel inventories continued to accumulate, but the accumulation rate slowed down. The apparent demand for building materials and hot - rolled coils increased month - on - month [8]. - There is still support for steel exports recently, and the funds of downstream construction sites continue to improve, leading to a recovery in building materials demand. The current improvement in steel demand, the decline in molten iron output, and strong steel exports support steel prices. However, molten iron production may resume rapidly after the military parade. In September, coal daily consumption is expected to decline, blast furnaces will resume production, and the steel fundamentals will deteriorate. If coal mines resume production rapidly after the military parade, steel prices will still face pressure [8]. - It is expected that in the short term, capital will act first, and steel prices will maintain a weak and volatile trend. In September, attention should be paid to the peak - season demand for steel, coal mine safety inspections, overseas tariffs, and domestic macro and industrial policies [8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Information - Thread Steel Futures - Prices of RB05, RB10, and RB01 decreased by 10 yuan/ton, 13 yuan/ton, and 11 yuan/ton respectively compared to yesterday [3]. - The spreads between different contracts and the changes in the spreads were also presented, such as HC05 - RB05 increasing by 8 yuan/ton [3]. - The disk profits of the 05, 10, and 01 contracts decreased by 17 yuan/ton, 33 yuan/ton, and 19 yuan/ton respectively [3]. - Thread Steel Spot - The prices of Shanghai Zhongtian, Nanjing Xicheng, etc. showed different changes, with Shanghai Zhongtian decreasing by 10 yuan/ton and Shandong Shiheng increasing by 10 yuan/ton [3]. - The basis differences of different contracts and different regions were provided, and the spot profits in different regions also changed, such as the East China thread steel profit decreasing by 14 yuan/ton [3]. - Hot - Rolled Coil Futures - HC05 decreased by 2 yuan/ton, HC10 remained unchanged, and HC01 increased by 1 yuan/ton compared to yesterday [3]. - The spreads between different contracts and the changes in the spreads were also shown, and the disk profits of the 05, 10, and 01 contracts decreased by 9 yuan/ton, 20 yuan/ton, and 7 yuan/ton respectively [3]. - Hot - Rolled Coil Spot - The prices of Tianjin Hegang, Lecong Rigang, etc. had different performances, with Shanghai Angang increasing by 10 yuan/ton [3]. - The basis differences of different contracts and different regions were given, and the spot profits in different regions changed, such as the Tianjin hot - rolled coil profit decreasing by 3 yuan/ton [3]. 3.2 Market Judgement - Related Prices - The price of Shanghai Zhongtian thread steel was 3200 yuan (- 10), Beijing Jingye was 3170 yuan (- 10), Shanghai Angang hot - rolled coil was 3360 yuan (+ 10), and Tianjin Hegang hot - rolled coil was 3290 yuan (unchanged) [7]. - Trading Strategies - Unilateral: Maintain a weak and volatile trend [9]. - Arbitrage: Hold the short position of the coil - to - thread spread and enter the 1 - 5 positive spread [9]. - Options: It is recommended to wait and see [9]. - Important Information - As of September 2, the capital availability rate of sample construction sites was 59.4%, with a week - on - week increase of 0.18 percentage points. The capital availability rate of non - housing construction projects was 61.01%, with a week - on - week increase of 0.09 percentage points, and that of housing construction projects was 51.39%, with a week - on - week increase of 0.44 percentage points [9]. - The US ISM manufacturing index in August was 48.7, lower than the expected 49 and the previous value of 48, and it has been below the boom - bust line for six consecutive months [9]. 3.3 Related Attachments A series of charts were provided, including the basis differences of different contracts of thread steel and hot - rolled coil in Shanghai area, the spreads between different contracts, the disk profits of different contracts, the cash profits in different regions, and the price differences between different products, etc. [15][17][21]