Report Overview - This is a black metal research report released on September 3, 2025, covering steel, coking coal, coke, iron ore, and ferroalloys [2][5] 1. Steel Core View - Steel demand has shown some improvement, with high iron - water production and strong steel exports supporting steel prices. However, due to the impact of the parade, recent iron - water production cuts have put short - term pressure on steel prices. The short - term steel price is expected to be volatile and weak, and the steel fundamentals may deteriorate after August [3] Key Information - Related Information: Last week, the transaction area of new commercial housing in 10 key cities was 1.6863 million square meters, a month - on - month increase of 28.1% and a year - on - year increase of 8.9%. The transaction area of second - hand housing was 1.9909 million square meters, a month - on - month increase of 0.5% and a year - on - year increase of 16.6%. In August, the estimated wholesale sales of new energy passenger vehicles by manufacturers nationwide were 1.3 billion, a year - on - year increase of 24% and a month - on - month increase of 10% [2] - Transaction Strategy: - Unilateral: Steel prices maintain a bottom - oscillating trend [3] - Arbitrage: Suggest to continue holding short positions on the spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar [3] - Options: Suggest to wait and see [3] 2. Coking Coal and Coke (Double - Coking) Core View - The current coal mine safety work is strict, and there are phased reductions in both coking coal supply and demand. The medium - term supply - demand relationship of coking coal will not change significantly. The coking coal price is oscillating downward, and the market confidence in coke is weak. The coking coal supply and demand are expected to be balanced in the near future, with no obvious contradictions, and the price will oscillate in a wide range [8] Key Information - Related Information: Last week, the transaction area of new commercial housing in 10 key cities was 1.6863 million square meters, a month - on - month increase of 28.1% and a year - on - year increase of 8.9%. The transaction area of second - hand housing was 1.9909 million square meters, a month - on - month increase of 0.5% and a year - on - year increase of 16.6%. 39 listed coal enterprises announced a total operating income of 637.001 billion yuan and a total net profit of 63.833 billion yuan in the first half of 2025 [7] - Transaction Strategy: - Unilateral: Wide - range oscillation [8] - Arbitrage: Wait and see [8] - Options: Wait and see [8] - Spot - Futures: Wait and see [8] 3. Iron Ore Core View - The supply of the four major iron ore mines is stable, and the non - mainstream shipments in August are at a high level year - on - year. The demand for manufacturing steel in the third quarter has weakened month - on - month. The overseas demand for iron ore remains at a relatively high level. The market expectation is fluctuating, and the iron ore price is expected to oscillate [9] Key Information - Related Information: The PB powder spot price at Qingdao Port is 769 yuan (+4), the standard product is 810 yuan; the Super Special powder spot price is 670 yuan (+7), the standard product is 898 yuan; the Carajás fines spot price is 885 yuan (+5), the standard product is 843 yuan. The basis of the 01 iron ore main contract is 39 [9] - Transaction Strategy: - Unilateral: Oscillate, mainly conduct high - level hedging in the spot market [9] - Arbitrage: Wait and see [10] - Options: Wait and see [10] 4. Ferroalloys Core View - For ferrosilicon, the spot price is stable with a slight upward trend, the production increase has slowed down, and the demand has a short - term impact but is still supported by high iron - water production. For silicomanganese, the manganese ore spot price is stable with a slight downward trend, the production is expected to remain high in the short term, and the demand is expected to recover marginally. Both are expected to oscillate at the bottom [13] Key Information - Related Information: On the 2nd, the semi - carbonate Mn36.6% at Tianjin Port was quoted at 34 yuan/ton - degree, the South32 Australian lump Mn41.5% was quoted at 40 yuan/ton - degree, the South African medium - iron lump Mn42%Fe12% was quoted at 37 yuan/ton - degree, and the Gabon lump Mn50% was quoted at 40 yuan/ton - degree. Since September 2, 2025, Shagang has lowered the scrap steel price by 50 yuan/ton [11][13] - Transaction Strategy: - Unilateral: Oscillate at the bottom [14] - Arbitrage: Gradually stop profiting from spot - futures positive arbitrage [14] - Options: Sell straddle option combinations on rallies [14]
黑色金属早报-20250903
Yin He Qi Huo·2025-09-03 13:58