银河期货航运日报-20250903

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The container shipping market is in a weak state, with spot prices in a downward channel and the overall freight rate center expected to decline in the second half of the year due to tariff pressure. The dry bulk shipping market shows mixed performance among different ship - types, with large - ship market lacking upward momentum and medium - ship market expected to be range - bound. The oil tanker transportation market remains stable overall, with different performances among different ship - types and potential price increases in some segments [5][6][18][23]. Summary According to Related Catalogs Container Shipping - Container Shipping Index (European Line) Market Analysis and Strategy Recommendation - Market Performance: On September 3, 2025, EC2510 closed at 1323 points, down 1.32% from the previous day. The SCFI European Line reported $1481/TEU on August 29, down 11.21% month - on - month, and the latest SCFIS European Line reported 1773.6 points on Monday after the market, down 10.9% month - on - month. The spot market is in a rapid decline, and the loading rate continues to fall [5]. - Fundamental Factors: In the second half of the year, export pressure is greater than in the first half due to tariffs. The loading rate of shipping companies in September continues to decline, and the freight rate center further drops. The US imposed reciprocal tariffs on August 1, increasing trade pressure [6]. - Trading Strategies: Unilateral trading is expected to be weakly volatile. There is an expectation of downward revision of the valuation center in October, but attention should be paid to the situation of empty sailings in October. For arbitrage, conduct rolling operations on the 10 - 12 reverse spread at low prices [7][8]. Industry News - Trump will hold an emergency meeting on tariff rulings on Wednesday, and may appeal to the Supreme Court. If the tariff appeal is rejected, tariffs may be withdrawn [10]. - The US ISM Manufacturing PMI in August was 48.7, lower than the expected 49 [11]. - The EU is considering postponing the schedule for imposing a unified tax on aviation and shipping fuel by 10 years [11]. - There are military actions in the Red Sea area, and the Houthi armed forces launched attacks on Israeli - related ships [12][13]. Dry Bulk Shipping Market Analysis and Outlook - Market Performance: The Baltic Dry Bulk Freight Index (BDI) fell to a more than one - week low on September 2, down 1.88% to 1986 points. Freight rates for all ship - types declined. The freight rates of Cape - size and Panamax ships decreased [15]. - Spot Freight Rates: On September 2, the freight rate of the Cape - size ship iron ore route from Tubarao, Brazil to Qingdao was $24.27/ton, down 0.82% month - on - month, and from Western Australia to Qingdao was $10.11/ton, down 1.51% month - on - month [16]. - Shipping Data: From August 25 to 31, 2025, the global iron ore shipping volume was 3556.8 million tons, an increase of 241.0 million tons month - on - month. The expected soybean export volume from Brazil from August 24 to 30 was 163.07 million tons, a decrease from the previous week [17]. - Logic Analysis: The activity of the two major markets for Cape - size ships was low, and the freight rates declined slightly. The Panamax ship market performed averagely, with an increase in available capacity and a slight decline in freight rates. The freight rates of large - ships are expected to be range - bound in the near term, and may be supported by the improvement of iron ore shipping volume in late September. The medium - ship market is expected to be range - bound in the short term, with relatively stable demand for South American grain transportation and weak coal demand [18]. Industry News - From August 25 to 31, the total iron ore inventory at seven major ports in Australia and Brazil was 1248.7 million tons, an increase of 48.2 million tons month - on - month, but still at a relatively low level [19]. - India's power generation increased by 4% year - on - year in August, and coal - fired power generation increased year - on - year for the first time in the past five months [19]. - The price of Supramax bulk carriers is rising due to market recovery and purchases by Chinese shipowners [19]. - From January to July, European fertilizer imports increased by 12% year - on - year, and Chinese suppliers have become the largest alternative suppliers in the EU [20]. Oil Tanker Transportation Market Analysis and Outlook - Market Performance: On September 2, the Baltic Dirty Tanker Index (BDTI) was 1041, up 0.19% month - on - month and 20.21% year - on - year. The Baltic Clean Tanker Index (BCTI) was 629, up 0.32% month - on - month and 8.26% year - on - year [23]. - Market Situation: The oil tanker transportation market remains stable overall. The crude oil market has declined after the previous rise, and the demand for some routes has slowed down, but the medium - sized oil tanker market performs strongly. The performance of different ship - types in the refined oil market is differentiated, and the freight rates of some ship - types may further increase [23]. Industry News - As of the week ending September 3, the total refined oil inventory at the Port of Fujairah in the UAE decreased by 150.3 million barrels to 1450.6 million barrels [24]. - Due to factors such as the European situation and US tariff policies, the domestic refined oil retail price limit is likely to increase on September 9, which will boost the domestic market sentiment. Diesel demand is expected to improve, while gasoline demand support is insufficient [25].