成本支撑短期反弹，苯乙烯供过于求

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The provided content does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - Pure benzene: On September 2, international oil prices fluctuated higher, which supported the cost side of pure benzene and improved market sentiment. Although the futures price of pure benzene decreased, the spot price decline was small, and the basis strengthened. From the supply side, the loss of domestic pure benzene due to maintenance is gradually being offset by new production capacity, and the overall supply rhythm remains stable. However, the increase in imported pure benzene arriving at ports starting from September is expected to be a pressure point. In terms of inventory, the port inventory decreased, indicating a short - term tight balance in supply. The demand side is clearly differentiated. Overall, the rise in crude oil provides cost support, and the spot market may remain strongly volatile in the short term, but there is still a risk of a mid - term market correction as import pressure increases [3]. - Styrene: On September 2, the styrene futures price decreased, and the basis widened. Although the futures price was under pressure, the rise in crude oil drove the stabilization of pure benzene, which provided some support for the cost side of styrene. The overall operating rate of styrene remained stable, and subsequent new installations will increase the capacity utilization rate. In terms of inventory, the social inventory of styrene increased significantly, indicating continuous supply pressure. The downstream demand structure is differentiated. Overall, the rebound in oil prices drives cost stabilization, and the styrene price is expected to recover with the market fluctuations in the short term, but the contradiction between high supply and inventory accumulation will still limit its rebound space, and the weak pattern is difficult to change [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Market Summary - Fundamentals - Prices: On September 2, the main contract of styrene closed down 1.13% at 6934 yuan/ton, with a basis of 66 (+44 yuan/ton); the main contract of pure benzene closed down 1.23% at 5936 yuan/ton [3]. - Costs: On September 2, Brent crude oil closed at $64.6 per barrel (+$0.6 per barrel), WTI crude oil closed at $68.1 per barrel (+$0.6 per barrel), and the spot price of pure benzene in East China was 5810 yuan/ton (-75 yuan/ton) [3]. - Inventory: Styrene inventory was 17.9 tons (+1.8 tons), a 10.8% increase compared to the previous period, indicating a large inventory accumulation. The port inventory of pure benzene was 13.8 tons (-0.6 tons), a 4.2% decrease compared to the previous period [3]. - Supply: Styrene plants will undergo maintenance in September, and supply is expected to decrease. Currently, the weekly production of styrene is 36.9 tons (-0.2 tons), and the factory capacity utilization rate is 78.1% (-0.4%) [3]. - Demand: The operating rates of downstream 3S products varied. The capacity utilization rate of EPS was 58.3% (-2.6%), ABS was 70.8% (-0.3%), and PS was 59.9% (+2.4%) [3]. 3.2 Industrial Chain Data Monitoring - Prices of styrene and pure benzene: On September 2, the futures price of styrene decreased by 1.13% to 6934 yuan/ton, and the spot price decreased by 0.27% to 7490 yuan/ton; the futures price of pure benzene decreased by 1.23% to 5936 yuan/ton, and the spot price in East China decreased by 1.27% to 5810 yuan/ton. The prices of upstream products such as Brent crude oil, WTI crude oil, and naphtha all increased slightly [6]. - Production and inventory of styrene and pure benzene: From August 22 to August 29, the production of styrene in China decreased by 0.59% to 36.9 tons, and the production of pure benzene increased by 0.24% to 45.2 tons. The port inventory of styrene in Jiangsu increased by 10.84% to 17.9 tons, and the factory inventory increased by 2.35% to 21.1 tons. The national port inventory of pure benzene decreased by 4.17% to 13.8 tons [7]. - Operating rates: From August 22 to August 29, the capacity utilization rates of pure benzene downstream products such as styrene, caprolactam, phenol, and aniline all decreased to varying degrees, while the capacity utilization rate of PS among styrene downstream products increased by 2.4% to 59.9% [8]. 3.3 Industry News - The United States has imposed high tariffs on some Asian (especially South Korean) chemical products, leading to adjustments in the global petrochemical industry structure. South Korea has been forced to reduce its ethylene cracking capacity, and some European regions have closed factories due to high energy costs [9]. - In the first half of 2025, the overall losses of China's refining and chemical industry continued to intensify, with the total loss amount increasing by about 8.3% compared to the same period last year, and the loss in the refining and chemical sector alone exceeding 9 billion yuan, highlighting the fierce competition and profit compression in the industry [9]. - With the accelerated implementation of private refining and chemical integration projects, China's pure benzene production capacity has formed a pattern with East China as the core and coordinated development in South China and Northeast China. However, there are still many small - and medium - sized production capacities in the industry, and the overall concentration remains low [9].