Report Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The current crude oil market presents a game pattern of strong reality and weak expectation. Geopolitical disturbances on the supply - side provide short - term strong support, and the destocking rhythm of refined oil in China strengthens demand resilience. However, the OPEC+ meeting maintaining production policies may weaken medium - and long - term supply constraints, and the risk of Saudi Arabia releasing idle production capacity and potential impacts of India's consumption policy adjustment form upward pressure. In the short term, the SC - WTI premium may remain high. If geopolitical risks do not escalate beyond expectations, oil prices may show a high - level oscillation pattern within a range [3]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Market Summary a. Crude Oil Futures Market Data Analysis - Prices and Spreads: On September 2, 2025, the price of the Shanghai Crude Oil (SC) main contract rose from 483.5 yuan/barrel to 490.4 yuan/barrel, a 1.43% increase. WTI and Brent prices remained unchanged at 64.61 and 68.16 dollars/barrel respectively. The SC - Brent spread rose from - 0.38 dollars/barrel to +0.45 dollars/barrel, a 218% increase, indicating that domestic crude oil strengthened relative to Brent. The SC - WTI spread expanded from 3.17 to 4.0 dollars/barrel, and the SC premium over WTI increased significantly. The near - far month spread (SC continuous 1 - continuous 3) rose from - 0.1 to +0.2 yuan/barrel, reflecting the tight supply expectation in the spot market [1]. - Positions and Transactions: Although the warehouse receipts of Chinese crude oil, fuel oil, asphalt and other varieties remained unchanged on September 2, the warehouse receipts of petroleum asphalt plants decreased by 1000 tons, implying the pick - up demand of physical enterprises [1]. b. Industrial Chain Supply - Demand and Inventory Changes Analysis - Supply Side: The attack on Russian refineries continued to ferment, and the CDU maintenance volume in Russia reached 6.4 million tons in August, leading to a contraction in high - sulfur fuel oil supply. The attack on a refinery in a European country disrupted regional refined oil supply and strengthened the geopolitical premium. The sanctions on Yangshan Warehouse reduced the circulation inventory of crude oil in the Chinese market. However, it is necessary to be vigilant that the OPEC+ meeting over the weekend may maintain the production policy unchanged, and the potential risk of Saudi Arabia increasing production still needs attention [2]. - Demand Side: The commercial inventory of refined oil in China was fully destocked. The diesel inventory decreased by 2.54% month - on - month to 102.52 million barrels, reaching a three - month low, indicating strong industrial oil demand. The supply of low - sulfur fuel oil in major bunkering ports remained tight. The expectation of a decrease in arbitrage cargoes in Singapore in the second half of September strengthened the structural demand for the switch from high - sulfur to low - sulfur in the Asia - Pacific region. India's plan to cut gasoline vehicle consumption tax may stimulate traditional energy demand, but the competition from electric vehicles may compress long - term demand growth [2]. - Inventory Side: China's weekly crude oil inventory decreased by 0.21% to 209.84 million barrels, declining for the fourth consecutive week. Although the data of the US strategic crude oil reserve was not updated, combined with the recent actions of the EIA, the replenishment demand still provided support for WTI. Notably, the positive SC - Brent spread indicated that the inventory pressure in the Chinese region had eased compared with Europe [2]. 2. Industrial Chain Price Monitoring a. Crude Oil - Futures Prices: On September 2, 2025, the SC price was 490.40 yuan/barrel, up 1.43% from the previous day; WTI was 65.62 dollars/barrel, up 1.56%; Brent was 69.07 dollars/barrel, up 1.34%; the OPEC basket price remained unchanged at 70.98 dollars/barrel [5]. - Spot Prices: Various crude oil spot prices showed different degrees of increase, such as Oman rising 1.27% to 71.90 dollars/barrel, and Victory rising 1.82% to 66.60 dollars/barrel [5]. - Spreads: The SC - Brent spread rose from - 0.38 to 0.45 dollars/barrel, a 218.42% increase; the SC - WTI spread expanded from 3.17 to 4.00 dollars/barrel, a 26.18% increase [5]. - Other Assets: The US dollar index rose 0.63% to 98.32; the S&P 500 index fell 0.69% to 6,415.54 points; the DAX index fell 2.29% to 23,487.33 points; the RMB exchange rate rose 0.20% to 7.15 [5]. - Inventory and Production: The US commercial crude oil inventory decreased by 0.57% to 41,829,200 barrels; the Cushing inventory decreased by 3.57% to 2,263,200 barrels; the US strategic reserve inventory increased by 0.19% to 40,420,100 barrels; the API inventory decreased by 0.22% to 44,982,200 barrels. The US refinery weekly operating rate decreased by 2.07% to 94.60%, and the crude oil processing volume decreased by 1.91% to 1,688,000 barrels per day [5]. b. Fuel Oil - Futures Prices: The FU price was 2,847.00 yuan/ton, up 0.53% from the previous day; the LU price was 3,559.00 yuan/ton, up 2.45% [6]. - Spot Prices: Most fuel oil spot prices increased, such as NYMEX fuel oil IF0380 in Singapore rising 2.66% to 237.16 cents/gallon [6]. - Paper Prices: Some paper prices remained unchanged, while some data were not updated [6]. - Spreads: The China high - low sulfur spread increased by 10.90% to 712.00 yuan/ton; the LU - Singapore FOB (0.5%S) spread increased by 4.22% to - 1,929.00 yuan/ton [6]. - Inventory: The Singapore fuel oil inventory increased by 7.33% to 24.724 million barrels [6]. 3. Industry Dynamics and Interpretations a. Supply - The sanctions on Yangshan Warehouse led to a tightening of supply. The willingness of short - sellers to deliver at Yangshan Warehouse decreased, and they closed their positions and left the market, resulting in the fuel oil price no longer being anchored to Yangshan Warehouse and the price center moving up. The attack on Russian refineries continued to disrupt the high - sulfur supply, and the supply of low - sulfur fuel oil in major bunkering ports was tight [7][8]. b. Demand - India's Tata Motors proposed to cut the consumption tax on some gasoline vehicles, which would make their prices lower than those of electric vehicles, potentially stimulating traditional energy demand [9]. c. Inventory - On September 2, the warehouse receipts of medium - sulfur crude oil futures, low - sulfur fuel oil futures, fuel oil futures, and petroleum asphalt futures warehouses remained unchanged, while the petroleum asphalt factory warehouse receipts decreased by 1000 tons. China's crude oil and refined oil inventories continued to decline [10]. d. Market Information - Brazil officially applied to join the International Energy Agency (IEA). The crude oil market closed early due to holidays, and trading was light, but the price showed an oscillating upward trend. The market was dominated by positive factors, but the concern about Saudi Arabia increasing production over the weekend limited the upside of oil prices. The spot gold price broke through the $3500 mark in the Asian session, and the market expected the OPEC+ to maintain production at the meeting over the weekend [11]. 4. Industrial Chain Data Charts - The report provides multiple data charts, including the prices and spreads of WTI and Brent first - line contracts, the SC - WTI spread statistics, the US weekly crude oil production, the number of oil rigs in the US and Canada, etc., with data sources from WIND, EIA, etc. [12][14][18]
地缘扰动叠加现货偏紧，支撑原油区间内高位震荡
Tong Hui Qi Huo·2025-09-03 14:25