Report Overview - The report is an energy and chemical research report on urea, dated September 3, 2025 [2] 1. Market Review Futures Market - Urea futures saw an increase in positions and a significant decline, closing at 1714 (-33/-1.89%) [3] Spot Market - The ex - factory prices were stable with average trading volume. The ex - factory prices in different regions were as follows: Henan 1660 - 1670 yuan/ton, Shandong small - particle 1660 - 1670 yuan/ton, Hebei small - particle 1660 - 1670 yuan/ton, Shanxi medium and small - particle 1640 - 1650 yuan/ton, Anhui small - particle 1680 - 1700 yuan/ton, and Inner Mongolia 1580 - 1640 yuan/ton [3] 2. Important Information - On September 3, the daily urea production in the industry was 18.24 tons, the same as the previous working day (revised to 18.24 tons), and 0.2 tons less than the same period last year. The current operating rate was 77.96%, 4.83% lower than 82.79% in the same period last year [4] 3. Logic Analysis Supply - Some plants were under maintenance, and the average daily production dropped below 190,000 tons. The urea production enterprise inventory increased by 61,900 tons to around 1.0858 million tons, remaining at a high level [5] Demand - A new round of Indian tender was announced, with India tendering for 2 million tons again, closing on September 2 and with a shipping date at the end of October. The large price difference between domestic and international markets and relaxed export policies had a certain boost to the domestic market sentiment. However, the enthusiasm for compound fertilizers in Central and North China was low, and the grass - roots had no intention to stock up. Although the operating rate of compound fertilizer plants increased slightly, the urea inventory could last for more than half a month, resulting in low procurement sentiment for raw materials. The overall demand was declining [5] Market Outlook - In the short term, the domestic demand was still limited. After the agricultural demand ended and the compound fertilizers had not started large - scale production, the spot market sentiment was generally stable. After some regions lowered the ex - factory prices, the manufacturers' order receipts improved. The Indian tender and relaxed export policies provided some support to the domestic spot market. However, after the ex - factory prices were raised to around 1680 yuan/ton, the downstream adopted a wait - and - see attitude. The futures fluctuated, and after the third batch of export quotas were implemented, urea returned to the domestic fundamentals. The key was the results of the Indian tender and the export volume to India [5] 4. Trading Strategies - For unilateral trading, it is recommended to wait and see [6] - For arbitrage, it is recommended to wait and see [6] - For options, it is recommended to wait and see [10]
银河期货尿素日报-20250903
Yin He Qi Huo·2025-09-03 14:26