银河期货甲醇日报-20250903

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Core View of the Report - With increasing methanol supply and port inventories hitting a record high, the strategy should focus on shorting at high prices [5] 3. Summary by Directory Market Review - The futures market fluctuated, closing at 2382 (+4/+0.17%) [3] - In the spot market, production areas had varying prices, such as 2030 yuan/ton in southern Inner Mongolia and 2050 yuan/ton in northern Inner Mongolia. Consumption areas also had different prices, like 2260 yuan/ton in southern Shandong [3] Important Information - As of September 3, 2025, China's total methanol port inventory was 142.77 million tons, an increase of 12.84 million tons from the previous period. Both East and South China regions saw inventory increases [4] Logic Analysis - Supply: Coal prices in the northwest are falling, coal - to - methanol profits are around 650 yuan/ton, and domestic supply is abundant. Import prices are dropping, and imports are increasing [5] - Demand: Traditional downstream industries are in the off - season, but MTO device operating rates are rising. Overall demand is relatively stable [5] - Inventory: Port inventories are increasing significantly, while inland enterprise inventories are fluctuating slightly [5] Trading Strategy - Unilateral: Short at high prices, do not chase short positions [6] - Arbitrage: Hold a wait - and - see attitude [9] - Options: Sell call options [9]