铜日报：英债危机短期拉升美元指数，铜临近压力风险加剧-20250903

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report In the short term, the copper market may continue to fluctuate at a high level. The current price is approaching resistance, and there is a short - term need for a correction. Supply - side factors such as Chilean mine disruptions and domestic smelting maintenance expectations provide support, but the widening overseas discount and the increase in domestic social inventory suppress the upside. On the demand side, the game between the peak - season expectation and high - price suppression will dominate the price fluctuations. The increasing expectation of the Fed's interest - rate cut at the macro level may boost risk appetite, but the adjustment risk caused by the repeated policy expectations should be vigilant [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Market Summary 3.1.1 Main Contract and Basis On September 2, the SHFE price of the main copper futures contract rose slightly to 79,810 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan from the previous day, while the LME copper price fell slightly to 9,875 dollars/ton. The spot premium and discount showed obvious differentiation. The premium of premium copper rose slightly from 300 yuan/ton to 305 yuan/ton, while the premiums of flat - water copper and wet - process copper fell by 30 yuan and 20 yuan to 135 yuan/ton and 55 yuan/ton respectively. The LME (0 - 3) discount widened further to - 86.27 dollars/ton, indicating pressure on the overseas spot end [1]. 3.1.2 Position and Trading Volume LME inventory decreased continuously, with a 3.46% decline on September 2 to 19,501 tons, hitting a recent low. SHFE inventory decreased slightly by 100 tons to 158,775 tons, but the domestic social inventory (SMM) increased to 132,100 tons due to the replenishment of imported goods. The warehouse receipts in Guangdong decreased by 699 tons in a single day, with accelerated regional destocking. However, in the North China market, due to logistics restrictions and cautious downstream purchasing at high prices, the trading activity was low [2]. 3.1.3 Industry Chain Supply - Demand and Inventory Changes - Supply Side: The Mantoverde copper mine in Chile faced a short - term decline in production due to equipment failures, increasing overseas copper mine supply disturbances. Chile's copper production in July increased slightly by 0.3% year - on - year to 445,000 tons, showing that the overall supply had not significantly contracted. The domestic smelting end was about to enter the centralized maintenance period, and combined with the logistics restrictions in North China, the spot circulation volume might be tightened periodically [3]. - Demand Side: High - priced copper significantly suppressed consumption. In July, the air - conditioner production decreased by 14.2% month - on - month, and the white - goods production schedule in September decreased by 7.2% year - on - year, with the air - conditioner production schedule decreasing by 12% year - on - year. The terminal demand was still weak. However, under the expectation of the traditional peak seasons of "Golden September and Silver October", the demand for copper tubes and power projects might improve marginally, and the copper tube start - up rate in September was expected to rise slightly [4]. - Inventory Side: The domestic social inventory increased continuously to 132,100 tons, mainly due to the arrival of imported copper. However, the visible inventories of SHFE and LME continued to decline, especially the LME inventory, which decreased by 8.9% compared with August 27, indicating a marginal tightening of overseas supply - demand. Subsequently, as the import window narrowed and the peak - season demand started, the domestic inventory pressure might gradually ease [4]. 3.2 Industry Chain Price Monitoring The report provides price and inventory data for September 2, 2025, September 1, 2025, and August 27, 2025, including SMM 1 copper, spot premium and discount of different types of copper, LME (0 - 3) discount, SHFE and LME prices, and LME, SHFE, and COMEX inventories, as well as their changes and change rates [7]. 3.3 Industry Dynamics and Interpretation - On September 2, SHFE copper futures warehouse receipts decreased by 699 tons to 19,501 tons, all of which were from Guangdong warehouses. The spot premium in Guangdong remained firm when the copper price rose [8]. - On September 2, Capstone Copper's Mantoverde copper mine in Chile faced a temporary decline in production due to the failure of two ball mills within a week [8]. - On September 1, SMM's national mainstream copper inventory increased by 0.5 tons to 132,100 tons week - on - week. The inventory increase was mainly due to the continuous arrival of imported copper, and the consumption was weak due to high copper prices. In the future, SMM expected that the imported copper would continue to arrive, and the copper inventory would decrease month - on - month as the demand recovered in the "Golden September and Silver October" [8]. - On September 1, in the North China market, logistics was restricted during the Tianjin Summit, and the copper price increase suppressed downstream buying interest, resulting in low trading activity [9]. - On August 31, Chile's copper production in July increased slightly by 0.3% year - on - year to 445,214 tons [9]. 3.4 Industry Chain Data Charts The report includes charts such as China PMI, US PMI, US employment situation, the correlation between the US dollar index and LME copper price, the correlation between US interest rates and LME copper price, TC processing fees, CFTC copper positions, LME copper net long positions, SHFE copper warehouse receipts, LME copper inventory changes, COMEX copper inventory changes, and SMM social inventory [10][12][14][15][18][21][23][27][28][31][33]