债券日报：科创债ETF第二批来袭，机会和风险怎么看？-20250903

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - This year, credit bond ETFs have attracted significant market attention, with active institutional trading and a structural rush to buy related index constituent bonds. Thirteen fund companies have collectively submitted applications for the second batch of Sci - tech Bond ETFs, which are expected to be listed in September. It is worth paying attention to the risks and opportunities of the related index constituent bonds [1][10]. - The short - term risk of significant over - decline of the Sci - tech Bond ETF index constituent bonds is relatively small. The new batch of Sci - tech Bond ETFs will bring new allocation funds, and the supply growth momentum has slowed down. After the second - batch listing, the excess spread of constituent bonds is unlikely to return to the high level in the first half of the year. The excess spread of constituent bonds is expected to further compress, but the space is limited. Some individual bonds' structural opportunities can be focused on [5][44][45]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Sci - tech Bond ETF and Related Constituent Bonds' Recent Market Performance - Discount status: Since mid - to late July, Sci - tech Bond ETFs have been in a discount state, with the discount rate mainly between 0.05% - 0.4%. Although there was some repair in early August and late August when the bond market sentiment improved marginally, they have not turned into a premium state. Similar ETFs also experienced discounts during previous bond market adjustments and then recovered [2][11]. - Differentiated performance of short - term and long - term constituent bonds: The excess spreads of 3 - year - within and 3 - 5 - year constituent bonds fluctuate with the bond market, with a larger amplitude than the same - term and same - grade medium - term notes. Currently, they are about 2 - 3BP higher than the previous low on average. The excess spread of over - 5 - year constituent bonds continued to narrow in August, but there was a catch - up decline at the end of the month. There is a need to pay attention to the possibility of further catch - up decline [3][14][16]. - Adjustment amplitude comparison: The recent adjustment amplitude of the underlying constituent bonds of the benchmark - making credit bond ETF index is slightly larger than that of the Sci - tech Bond ETF index constituent bonds. This may be due to the better liquidity of benchmark - making credit bond varieties and the fact that the listing of Sci - tech Bond ETFs has squeezed the allocation demand for benchmark - making credit bond ETFs to some extent [3][30]. 3.2 Recent Supply - Demand Structure of Index Constituent Bonds - Supply side: Since the introduction of the new Sci - tech Bond policy in May, the issuance of Sci - tech Bonds has been booming, and the scale has increased significantly. Although the recent issuance scale has declined, it remains at a relatively high level. As of the end of August, the balance of the constituent bonds of the CSI AAA Sci - tech Bond index was close to 1.25 trillion yuan, an increase of nearly 277.8 billion yuan compared to the end of April [32]. - Demand side: After the listing of Sci - tech Bond ETFs, the scale expanded rapidly, but the recent growth rate has been relatively flat. This may be because the yield of index constituent bonds has declined rapidly, reducing their cost - effectiveness, and the secondary - market credit ETFs are in a discount state during the recent bond market adjustment, weakening the primary - market subscription sentiment [4][35]. 3.3 Opportunities and Risks of Related Index Constituent Bonds after the Application for the Second Batch of Sci - tech Bond ETFs - Tracking index types: The second - batch Sci - tech Bond ETFs mainly track the CSI AAA, Shanghai Stock Exchange AAA, and Shenzhen Stock Exchange AAA Sci - tech Bond indexes, with 9, 3, and 1 fund respectively [39]. - Expected listing time: If referring to the application - approval process of the first batch, the second batch of Sci - tech Bond ETFs is expected to be issued and listed in September [41][43]. - Opportunities and risks: The short - term risk of significant over - decline of the index constituent bonds is small. The excess spread of constituent bonds is expected to further compress, but the space is limited. Attention can be paid to individual bonds with relatively high excess spread levels and large recent declines to seek potential excess returns [5][44][45].