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非银金融2025中报综述:“慢牛”新周期,板块重估时
Changjiang Securities·2025-09-03 15:29

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the non-bank financial sector [2] Core Insights - The report highlights a "slow bull" new cycle, indicating a revaluation of the sector with significant growth in insurance premiums and profits for listed insurance companies in 2025 [7] - The insurance sector is experiencing rapid growth in bank insurance, improved cost structures, and increased allocation to equity assets, reflecting a trend of "deposit migration" and rising industry concentration [7] - Brokerage firms continue to show strong performance, with a notable recovery in investment banking activities and a significant increase in net profits [7] - Financial technology firms are seeing strong revenue elasticity in C-end businesses, while B-end businesses face challenges due to declining downstream demand [7] - The report recommends focusing on companies with strong long-term profitability potential and suggests long-term holdings in leading and high-dividend stocks within the industry [7] Summary by Sections Insurance: Gradual Validation of ROE Revaluation - The 2025 interim report for listed insurance companies shows significant growth in value and premiums, with a focus on bank insurance growth and improved cost structures [12] - The new business value (NBV) increased by 31% year-on-year, and the net investment yield decreased slightly [13] - The allocation to equity assets has increased, with a notable rise in stock and fund exposure [12][13] Brokerage: Stability of Leading Firms' Profitability - In the first half of 2025, brokerage firms achieved a total revenue of 2,518.94 billion and a net profit of 1,036.05 billion, representing year-on-year increases of 11.3% and 65.6%, respectively [41] - The brokerage business continues to show strong growth, particularly in proprietary trading and brokerage services [41] - The average return on equity (ROE) for the sector increased to 3.5%, with leading firms showing significantly higher ROE [47] Financial Technology: Strong Elasticity in C-end Business - C-end business revenues are driven by increased trading demand, leading to improved profit margins, while B-end businesses remain under pressure [7] - The competitive landscape among large platforms remains stable, with revenue primarily driven by trading-related services [7] Investment Recommendations - The report emphasizes the shift in industry valuation from short-term trading risks to long-term profitability potential, recommending companies with strong earnings stability and growth potential [7] - Specific stock recommendations include New China Life Insurance, China Life, and China Pacific Insurance for the insurance sector, and Jiufang Zhitu, Tonghuashun, and CITIC Securities for the brokerage and financial IT sectors [7]