Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating in the reports Core View of the Report - The main indices of the two markets continued to adjust on Wednesday, while the ChiNext Index strengthened. The A-share new account openings in August showed significant growth both month-on-month and year-on-year. The issuance of a private equity fund by Hengyi Chiying to Ping An Life and the inflow of international funds into A-shares are positive factors. The market as a whole may enter a daily-level adjustment state, with a low probability of a sharp downward trend, and the adjustment is expected to occur in the form of range-bound horizontal fluctuations [1][2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review - On Wednesday, the main indices of the two markets continued to adjust, with the ChiNext Index strengthening driven by the battery sector. The trading volume decreased during the adjustment, with a turnover of 236 million yuan. The Shanghai Composite 50 Index closed at 2960 points, down 31 points or -1.07%; the CSI 300 Index closed at 4459 points, down 30 points or -0.68%; the CSI 500 Index closed at 6868 points, down 93 points or -1.34%; the CSI 1000 Index closed at 7206 points, down 107 points or -1.46%. Among industry and theme ETFs, those related to energy storage batteries, photovoltaic, and new energy led the gains, while aerospace and military-related ETFs led the losses. Among the sector indices, electrical equipment, communication equipment, BC batteries, and the pharmaceutical index led the gains, while military trade concepts, aviation, military informatization, large aircraft, and the diversified finance index led the losses. The CSI 300, CSI 500, CSI 1000, and Shanghai Composite 50 stock index futures saw net outflows of 4.9 billion, 4.6 billion, 2.9 billion, and 1.8 billion yuan respectively [1] Important Information - China's S&P Services PMI in August was 53, up from 52.6 in the previous month, reaching the fastest record since May 2024 and remaining in the expansion zone for 32 consecutive months. The growth rate of new orders accelerated for the second consecutive month and reached the highest record since May 2024, partly due to the strong growth of new export business [1] - In August this year, the number of new A-share accounts reached 2.6503 million, a month-on-month increase of 34.97% compared to 1.9636 million in July this year and a year-on-year increase of 165.21% [1] - The Shanghai Stock Exchange and China Securities Index Co., Ltd. jointly announced that they would adjust the samples of indices such as the Sci-Tech Innovation 50 according to the index rules. This adjustment is expected to be completed between September 12 and September 15. The weight of Cambrian in the Sci-Tech Innovation 50 Index will be passively adjusted from the current approximately 15% to 10% [1] - Hengyi Chiying will issue a contract-based private equity fund to Ping An Life as the fund manager, with an initial fund size of approximately 30 billion yuan. Once insurance funds enter the market through private equity funds, their returns will not be affected by the short-term fluctuations of the stock prices of the held varieties [1] - According to the preliminary estimate of the Passenger Car Association, the wholesale sales of new energy passenger vehicles by manufacturers nationwide in August were 1.3 million, a year-on-year increase of 24% and a month-on-month increase of 10%. The cumulative wholesale sales from January to August this year were 8.93 million, a year-on-year increase of 34% [1] - Since the beginning of this year, the overseas energy storage demand has increased explosively, leading to a surge in orders for domestic energy storage cell enterprises. Factories have been operating at full capacity. With the implementation of the market-oriented reform of the new energy on-grid electricity price, some energy storage enterprises even reported a situation of "even paying extra can't get an order" and "a shortage of cells" [1][2] - In the first half of the year, the global energy storage cell shipments were 226 GWh, a year-on-year increase of 97%. The top nine were all Chinese enterprises. In the first half of the year, Chinese enterprises obtained 199 new overseas energy storage orders (cooperations), with a total scale of over 160 GWh, a year-on-year increase of 220.28%. The emerging markets have broad prospects [2] - Tesla officially released "The Fourth Chapter of the Master Plan", expecting that approximately 80% of the company's value will come from the Optimus robot in the future. It plans to launch the third version prototype of Optimus by the end of this year and start large-scale mass production in 2026, aiming to reach an annual production scale of 1 million units within five years [2] - The yield of the 30-year UK government bond once rose to 5.697%, reaching a new high since 1998; the yield of the 30-year German government bond was at a level not seen since 2011; the yield of the 30-year French government bond refreshed the record since 2009. Investors are re-evaluating the long-term risks brought by the expanding public debt and political uncertainties in Europe [2] - Ray Dalio warned that Trump is pushing the United States towards the governance model of the 1930s through state intervention in the private sector. He predicted that the United States will face a debt crisis within three years, and the huge fiscal gap will force large-scale bond issuance [2] Market Logic - The main indices of the two markets continued to adjust on Wednesday, while the ChiNext Index strengthened. The A-share new account openings in August showed significant growth both month-on-month and year-on-year. Hengyi Chiying's issuance of a private equity fund to Ping An Life and the inflow of international funds into A-shares since August are positive factors [2] Market Outlook - The main indices of the two markets continued to adjust on Wednesday, while the ChiNext Index strengthened. The S&P Services PMI in August showed good performance, and the energy storage cell industry had strong growth. The A-share new account openings in August increased significantly. The global reallocation of financial assets away from the US is expected to accelerate the inflow of international funds into A-shares. The market as a whole may enter a daily-level adjustment state, with a low probability of a sharp downward trend, and the adjustment is expected to occur in the form of range-bound horizontal fluctuations [2] Trading Strategy - For stock index futures directional trading, the market as a whole may enter a daily-level adjustment state, with a low probability of a sharp downward trend, and the adjustment is expected to occur in the form of range-bound horizontal fluctuations [2] - For stock index option trading, the market has entered an adjustment period, so it is advisable to wait and see [2]
格林大华期货早盘提示-20250904
Ge Lin Qi Huo·2025-09-03 23:31