财政和央行工作组会议提前召开？

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report is optimistic about the bond market, continuing to be bullish on 10-year Treasury bonds around 1.75% and 30-year Treasury bonds around 2.0%. It also suggests that there could be a dual bull market for stocks and bonds, and recommends seizing the left-side opportunity in the bond market [3][4][16] Core Viewpoints - The meeting between the Ministry of Finance and the People's Bank of China sends two clear signals: greater emphasis on coordination between the two departments in the future and more diversified focus areas of the working group. The probability of restarting Treasury bond trading within the year has increased [5] - The meeting is at least positive for the bond market, with clearer "ceilings" for bond market interest rates and more "intrinsic stability" injected into both primary issuance and secondary trading. The improvement in monetary and fiscal coordination is favorable for liquidity and helps reduce the subsequent bond supply shock. The expectation of "Treasury bond trading" may provide an opportunity for the bond market to recover [3][4] Summary by Relevant Catalogs People's Bank and Ministry of Finance Two Joint Working Meetings' Similarities and Differences - Similarities: Both meetings are held at similar time points, with similar levels of participants and rely on the same platform - the "Joint Working Group of the People's Bank of China and the Ministry of Finance". They are both held near the end of the government bond issuance arranged by the two sessions to summarize and look forward to the previous monetary and fiscal coordination [9] - Differences: In the second meeting, the Ministry of Finance is mentioned first. The second meeting emphasizes "monetary and fiscal coordination" more, and the policy focus has expanded from Treasury bond trading to financial market operation, government bond issuance management, and improvement of the offshore RMB Treasury bond issuance mechanism [6][11] Future Policy Operations - Restart of Treasury Bond Trading: With the gradual maturity of the Treasury bonds bought by the central bank at the end of last year, the probability of restarting Treasury bond trading within the year is relatively high. After the October 2024 meeting mentioned increasing Treasury bond trading in central bank open - market operations, the central bank's net Treasury bond purchases in the fourth quarter were slightly higher than before. As of the end of July 2025, about 678.1 billion yuan of Treasury bonds bought in 2024 had matured [12] - Enhanced Monetary and Fiscal Coordination: The coordination between monetary and fiscal policies may be further enhanced. The bond issuance structure and rhythm may be further optimized, and the central bank's liquidity injection rhythm will be more consistent to maintain the stable operation of the bond market. Improving the offshore RMB Treasury bond issuance mechanism is beneficial for perfecting the offshore RMB yield curve, providing more complete pricing references for offshore RMB bonds, and stabilizing the exchange rate and reducing the pressure of domestic Treasury bond supply [12] Bond Market Outlook - It cannot be judged that bond market interest rates will start to decline significantly based on the experience of last year. However, the overall tone of the meeting is more favorable for bonds. The improvement in monetary and fiscal coordination is favorable for liquidity and helps reduce the subsequent bond supply shock. The expectation of "Treasury bond trading" may provide an opportunity for the bond market to recover, and it is recommended to seize the left - side opportunity [16]