申万宏源研究晨会报告-20250904

Core Insights - The report highlights the resilience of China's manufacturing sector, indicating early signs of recovery amidst a complex global environment characterized by trade conflicts and geopolitical risks [2][9] - The analysis emphasizes the ongoing improvement in the technology, media, and telecommunications (TMT) sectors, driven by domestic demand and advancements in artificial intelligence [2][9] - The report identifies key investment opportunities in sectors such as AI applications, pharmaceuticals, and renewable energy equipment, suggesting a potential shift in market focus towards undervalued sectors [2][9][10] Financial Indicators and Industry Performance - In Q2 2025, the report notes that key financial indicators improved in four or more industries, particularly in high-performing electronics and sectors experiencing bottoming out, such as defense, agriculture, and power equipment [9][10] - The profitability structure of A-shares is gradually concentrating in manufacturing and cyclical industries, with financial and real estate sectors contributing over 50% of total profits [9][10] - The report indicates that the manufacturing sector's capital expenditure has shown signs of recovery, with expectations for a clearer turning point in the economic cycle by 2026 [9][10] Supply and Demand Dynamics - The report discusses the ongoing supply clearing process across various industries, with many sectors experiencing negative employment growth, indicating a reduction in supply [9][10] - It highlights that while some industries are facing high inventory levels, others are seeing a significant increase in order growth, particularly in defense electronics and renewable energy sectors [9][10] - The report suggests that the "anti-involution" policies are likely to continue driving supply clearing, with expectations for peak conditions in the second half of 2025 to 2026 [9][10] Impact of Tariffs on Overseas Performance - The report analyzes the performance of industries with significant overseas revenue, noting that despite increased tariff conflicts, many sectors have seen a rise in overseas income proportions [9][10] - It highlights that industries with high overseas revenue, such as machinery and telecommunications, have maintained or improved their profit margins compared to domestic averages [9][10] Dividend Trends and Valuation Framework - The report notes that mid-term dividend distributions are continuing, with banks and other sectors reporting substantial dividend payouts in the first half of 2025 [9][10] - It discusses the current valuation landscape, identifying sectors with low price-to-book (PB) and return on equity (ROE) as potential areas for investment, particularly in pharmaceuticals and AI applications [9][10]