五矿期货早报有色金属-20250904

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - The Fed's probability of cutting interest rates remains high, and the risk appetite in the Chinese market has weakened. The supply of copper raw materials remains tight, and the approaching peak season provides strong price support, but the marginal cooling of sentiment may increase the upward resistance of copper prices [1]. - The Fed Chair signaled dovishness, increasing market expectations of a September interest - rate cut. The relatively low inventory of domestic electrolytic aluminum and the marginal improvement in demand provide price support, but the aluminum price may fluctuate in the short term [3]. - The Fed's high probability of interest - rate cuts and the positive atmosphere in the non - ferrous metals sector, along with the marginal narrowing of lead ingot supply, are expected to drive lead prices to run strongly [4]. - There is a divergence between the macro background and the industrial situation of zinc. Although the short - term decline space is limited, it is expected to show a low - level oscillation pattern [6]. - The supply of tin is expected to decrease significantly in the short term, while the demand is in the off - season. The tin price is expected to fluctuate in the short term [7]. - The short - term macro atmosphere is positive, and the expectation of interest - rate cuts may drive the non - ferrous metals including nickel to strengthen. The nickel price has limited downward space and is recommended to buy on dips [8]. - The lithium carbonate market lacks positive drivers and continues to adjust weakly. Attention should be paid to overseas supply and industrial news [10]. - After the sharp decline of alumina futures prices, the downward space is limited, but the oversupply pattern makes it difficult to support a continuous rebound. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [12]. - With the approaching of the traditional consumption peak season, the stainless - steel consumption is expected to increase [14]. - The casting aluminum alloy is gradually transitioning from the off - season to the peak season. With strong cost support and increasing market activity, the price may run at a high level in the short term [16]. Summary by Metal Types Copper - LME copper closed at $9974/ton, down 0.39%, and SHFE copper closed at 80260 yuan/ton. LME copper inventory decreased by 200 tons to 158575 tons, and the proportion of cancelled warrants rose to 8.5%. In China, SHFE copper warrants slightly decreased to 19,000 tons. The supply of copper raw materials is tight, and the price support is strong [1]. Aluminum - LME aluminum closed at $2614/ton, down 0.29%, and SHFE aluminum closed at 20725 yuan/ton. SHFE aluminum weighted contract positions slightly increased to 557,000 lots, and futures warrants increased by 0.1 to 60,000 tons. Domestic aluminum ingot and aluminum rod inventories decreased, and the aluminum price may fluctuate [3]. Lead - SHFE lead index closed up 0.09% at 16866 yuan/ton, and LME lead 3S fell to $1993/ton. The supply of lead concentrates is tight, and the smelting start - up rate is high. The lead price is expected to be strong [4]. Zinc - SHFE zinc index closed down 0.16% at 22284 yuan/ton, and LME zinc 3S rose to $2864/ton. The supply of zinc concentrates is increasing, the smelting volume is expanding, and the demand has not improved significantly. The zinc price is expected to oscillate at a low level [6]. Tin - The resumption of tin mines in Myanmar is slow, and the supply of tin in Yunnan is short. The output of refined tin in September is expected to decrease by 29.89% month - on - month. The demand is in the off - season, and the tin price is expected to fluctuate [7]. Nickel - The nickel price fluctuated narrowly. The profit of nickel - iron plants has improved, and the demand for stainless - steel production is expected to increase. The short - term macro atmosphere is positive, and the nickel price is recommended to buy on dips [8]. Lithium Carbonate - The MMLC spot index of lithium carbonate fell 1.91%. The market lacks positive drivers and continues to adjust weakly. Attention should be paid to overseas supply [10]. Alumina - The alumina index fell 0.99% to 2990 yuan/ton. The supply and demand are in an oversupply pattern, and it is recommended to wait and see in the short term [12]. Stainless Steel - The stainless - steel main contract closed at 12915 yuan/ton, down 0.35%. The traditional consumption peak season is approaching, and the demand is expected to increase [14]. Casting Aluminum Alloy - The AD2511 contract fell slightly to 20285 yuan/ton. The downstream is transitioning from the off - season to the peak season, and the price may run at a high level [16]