国新国证期货早报-20250904

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - On September 3, 2025, the A - share market showed mixed trends, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 1.16%, the Shenzhen Component Index down 0.65%, and the ChiNext Index up 0.95%. The trading volume of the two markets significantly decreased by 510.9 billion yuan compared to the previous day [1]. - Various futures products presented different price trends and influencing factors, including supply - demand relationships, policy impacts, and international market conditions [4][6][7]. Summary by Related Catalogs Stock Index Futures - On September 3, the A - share market's three major indexes showed mixed trends. The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3813.56, down 1.16%; the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 12472.00, down 0.65%; the ChiNext Index closed at 2899.37, up 0.95%. The trading volume of the two markets was 2.3641 trillion yuan, a significant decrease of 510.9 billion yuan compared to the previous day [1]. - The CSI 300 index continued to adjust on September 3, closing at 4459.83, a decrease of 30.62 from the previous day [2]. Coke and Coking Coal - On September 3, the coke weighted index showed a weak oscillation, closing at 1597.7, a decrease of 9.6 from the previous day [2]. - On September 3, the coking coal weighted index was weak, closing at 1104.7 yuan, a decrease of 13.9 from the previous day [3]. - For coke, the fifth round of price increase was implemented, but steel mills' high profitability led to weak production - reduction willingness. The daily average production of long - process hot metal decreased slightly to 240.71 million tons last week. The demand support for coke increased slightly. The trading logic switched to the dual - wheel drive of macro - industrial policies and fundamentals [4]. - For coking coal, the supply from the Sino - Mongolian border decreased slightly, port inventories decreased, and the overall supply narrowed. The demand support remained, and the inventory accumulation situation improved [4]. Zhengzhou Sugar - Affected by factors such as sufficient rainfall in India and Thailand and Brazilian sugar mills' preference for sugar production, the US sugar price oscillated downward on Tuesday. The Zhengzhou sugar 2601 contract oscillated downward on Wednesday under the influence of the decline in US sugar prices and spot price cuts. As of the end of August, Guangxi's cumulative sugar sales were 5.7563 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 299,700 tons; the sales - to - production ratio was 89.04%, a year - on - year increase of 0.62 percentage points [4]. Rubber - Shanghai rubber showed a narrow - range oscillation on Wednesday and closed slightly lower due to the decline in the stock market. Affected by factors such as the decline in crude oil prices and the significant decline in global natural rubber consumption in July predicted by the Association of Natural Rubber Producing Countries, it oscillated downward at night. In July 2025, global natural rubber production was expected to slightly decrease by 0.1% to 1.328 million tons, an increase of 7.9% from the previous month; consumption was expected to decrease by 4.1% to 1.246 million tons, a decrease of 0.3% from the previous month [5]. Soybean Meal - Internationally, on September 3, CBOT soybean futures were weak. As of August 31, the good - to - excellent rate of US soybeans was 65%, lower than the market expectation of 68%. Domestically, on September 3, soybean meal futures oscillated. The M2601 main contract closed at 3066 yuan/ton, up 0.52%. The high - capacity utilization rate of imported soybeans led to an increase in soybean meal inventory to 1.063 million tons. The price oscillated, and the progress of Sino - US trade negotiations and soybean imports should be focused on [6]. Live Pigs - On September 3, live pig futures prices showed a weak oscillation. The LH2511 main contract closed at 13,550 yuan/ton, down 0.33%. In September, the planned slaughter volume of large - scale pig enterprises increased month - on - month, but the terminal demand showed signs of slow recovery. In the medium - to - long - term, the inventory of fertile sows in July was 40.42 million, and the supply pressure in the fourth quarter was large. In the short - term, live pigs may oscillate weakly in a range [7]. Palm Oil - On September 3, palm oil futures continued to oscillate slightly. The main contract P2601 closed with a doji - like candlestick with an upper shadow, at 9468 yuan, down 0.57% from the previous day. It is estimated that Malaysia's palm oil inventory in August 2025 was 2.2 million tons, an increase of 4.06% from July; production was 1.86 million tons, an increase of 2.5% from July; exports were 1.45 million tons, an increase of 10.7% from July [7]. Shanghai Copper - The main contract of Shanghai copper was actively traded. After opening, the price oscillated around the previous day's settlement price. In the morning, the bulls pushed the price up, but after reaching the daily high, the bears forced the price down. It was affected by factors such as the rise of precious metals and the possible Fed rate cut in September. The market was still cautious [8]. Cotton - On Wednesday night, the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton closed at 13,965 yuan/ton. On September 3, the base - price quotation of Xinjiang designated delivery (supervision) warehouses was at least 900 yuan/ton, and the cotton inventory decreased by 135 lots compared to the previous day [8]. Logs - On September 3, the 2511 log contract opened at 810.5, with a low of 796.5, a high of 810.5, and closed at 798.5, with an increase of 2557 lots in positions. The futures price broke below the 60 - day moving average of 812, and the pressure at the 800 mark should be noted. The spot prices in Shandong and Jiangsu remained unchanged. The increase in foreign - market quotes drove up the domestic futures price [8][9]. Iron Ore - On September 3, the 2601 main contract of iron ore oscillated and closed up 0.71%, at 777 yuan. The global iron ore shipment returned to the highest level of the year, the arrival volume increased month - on - month, and the hot - metal production decreased slightly. The short - term price was in an oscillating trend [10]. Asphalt - On September 3, the 2510 main contract of asphalt oscillated and closed down 0.36%, at 3551 yuan. Last week, the capacity utilization rate of asphalt continued to decline month - on - month, inventory reduction was slow, and the shipment volume increased slightly. With the arrival of the peak - demand season, the demand in both southern and northern markets is expected to increase. In the short - term, the price will oscillate [10]. Steel - On September 3, rb2601 closed at 3106 yuan/ton, and hc2601 closed at 3299 yuan/ton. The short - term demand improvement was limited, the trading of low - price resources was acceptable, but that of high - price resources was poor. The demand in the peak season of September remains to be verified. Most steel mills had small profits, and the blast furnaces in Tangshan will resume production in the second half of the week. The steel production may remain at a high level. In the short - term, steel prices may oscillate narrowly [10]. Alumina - On September 3, ao2601 closed at 2992 yuan/ton. The expectation of anti - involution policies weakened, and the market sentiment returned to be dominated by fundamentals. The short - term supply of imported bauxite was tight, but the new production capacity was expected to be continuously put into use, and the supply pressure was prominent. The increasing number of exchange - registered warehouse receipts suppressed the futures price [11]. Shanghai Aluminum - On September 3, al2510 closed at 20,710 yuan/ton. The expectation of the Fed rate cut and China's policy support created a positive atmosphere, which was expected to boost aluminum consumption. However, it would take time for the policy to be transmitted to actual consumption. In the traditional peak season of September, aluminum prices were generally likely to rise but faced top - end pressure [11].