宝城期货豆类油脂早报-20250904

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views of the Report - For the soybean meal (M) and its 2601 contract, the intraday, short - term, and medium - term views are all "oscillating weakly", and the overall view is also "oscillating weakly". The core logic is that short - term market sentiment is cautious, funds leave the market, and the futures price is difficult to have a trend fluctuation. The expected supply gap may be falsified, and the trading logic switches to the weaker reality [6][8]. - For palm oil (P) and its 2601 contract, the intraday, short - term, and medium - term views are all "oscillating weakly", and the overall view is also "oscillating weakly". After the sharp fall of palm oil after a sharp rise, although the inventory pressure is not large due to limited production growth and strong exports in Southeast Asia, recent protests in Indonesia and the spill - over effect of international oil prices still affect the futures price, and short - term funds do not stay, so the price will mainly fluctuate widely [7][9]. - For soybean oil 2601, the short - term, medium - term, and intraday views are all "oscillating weakly", and the view reference is also "oscillating weakly". The core logic involves factors such as US biofuel policy, US soybean oil inventory, domestic soybean cost support, supply rhythm, and oil refinery inventory [8]. Group 3: Summary by Variety Soybean Meal - Logic Factors: Import arrival rhythm, customs clearance inspection, oil refinery start - up rhythm, and stocking demand [8]. Soybean Oil - Logic Factors: US biofuel policy, US soybean oil inventory, domestic soybean cost support, supply rhythm, and oil refinery inventory [8]. Palm Oil - Logic Factors: Biodiesel attributes, Malaysian palm oil production and exports, Indonesian exports, main - producing countries' tariff policies, domestic arrivals and inventory, and substitution demand [8].