宝城期货螺纹钢早报-20250904

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Report's Core View - The steel price of rebar is expected to continue the trend of oscillating to find the bottom. It is recommended to pay attention to the pressure at the MA5 line and the production and sales data released by Steel Union today [1][2] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Variety View Reference - For rebar 2601, the short - term view is oscillating and weakening, the medium - term view is oscillating, and the intraday view is also oscillating and weakening. The reference view is to pay attention to the pressure at the MA5 line, with the core logic being the accumulation of industrial contradictions and the weakening of steel prices under pressure [1] Market Driving Logic - The fundamentals of rebar are weak. The rebar production has increased month - on - month and reached the annual high, increasing the supply pressure. Although the demand has improved, high - frequency indicators are still at the low level in the same period in recent years, and the improvement space of peak - season demand is questionable. With supply rising and demand remaining low, industrial contradictions are accumulating, the low - inventory pattern has changed, and the steel price is under pressure. The relatively positive factors are cost increase and peak - season expectations [2]