金信期货日刊-20250904

Report Industry Investment Ratings - The report suggests treating the coking coal and palm oil markets with a cautious and somewhat bearish outlook, indicated as "oscillating with a downward bias" [3][22] 2. Core Views - The decline in coking coal futures prices is due to multiple factors including supply - demand imbalances, policy, and cost. The supply has increased while demand is weak, and inventory and policy factors also contribute to the downward pressure [3] - The A - share market is expected to continue high - level oscillating adjustments in the short term [6] - Gold has a chance to break through the platform in the short term as the probability of a September interest rate cut in the US has increased [10][11] - Iron ore shows a slight rebound today with obvious high - level wide - range oscillations recently, and there is a risk of negative feedback due to the erosion of steel mill profits [14][15] - Glass futures had a rally followed by a decline today. Attention should be paid to the support level and the replenishment situation approaching the peak season [18][19] - The pulp price in Shandong is stable, and the market is expected to remain in low - level oscillations before the Mid - Autumn Festival peak season [26] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Hot Focus - Coking Coal - Supply: The safety inspection in major production areas has been relaxed, and coal mines that were shut down for maintenance have resumed production, with weekly output increasing by about 4%. The arrival of Russian coal at ports in mid - to late August has further increased supply [3] - Demand: Downstream coking plants have reduced their enthusiasm for replenishing coking coal due to the slowdown in steel mill purchases. Steel mill profits have limited recovery, and iron and steel production is at a medium - low level, suppressing coking coal demand [3] - Inventory and Policy: Port inventory has increased by 140% year - on - year. If demand does not improve, inventory pressure will push prices down. The pre - September 3rd military parade production limit expectations are not as strong as before, and possible relaxation of over - production verification policies may increase supply [3] Technical Analysis - Stock Index Futures - The three major A - share indexes opened high and closed low today, with the Shanghai Composite Index briefly falling below 3800 points. The market is expected to continue high - level oscillating adjustments in the short term [6] Technical Analysis - Gold - The US July PCE price data met expectations, increasing the probability of a September interest rate cut, which is beneficial for gold. The weekly adjustment is relatively sufficient, and there are signs of breaking through the platform in the short term [10][11] Technical Analysis - Iron Ore - Technically, there was a slight rebound today, with obvious high - level wide - range oscillations recently. Attention should be paid to the support level below. There is a risk of negative feedback due to the erosion of steel mill profits [14][15] Technical Analysis - Glass - Technically, it rallied and then declined today. Attention should be paid to the support level below. Daily melting is basically stable, factory inventories continue to accumulate, and downstream deep - processing orders have limited improvement. Attention should be paid to the replenishment situation approaching the peak season [18][19] Technical Analysis - Palm Oil - The oil market has had a large cumulative increase recently. With rising inventory pressure and lack of demand support, the market's motivation to chase up has declined, and the pressure for profit - taking has increased. It is recommended to take a somewhat bearish view [22] Technical Analysis - Pulp - The pulp price in Shandong remained stable today. The market shows signs of stopping the decline, but the upward driving force is limited, and trading sentiment is light. It is expected to remain in low - level oscillations before the Mid - Autumn Festival peak season, and it is advisable to wait and see [26]