Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - Global risk appetite has increased due to multiple Federal Reserve officials signaling potential interest rate cuts, while in China, although there are signs of improvement in the manufacturing PMI, it has remained below the boom - bust line for five consecutive months. Market sentiment is divided, with a focus on domestic incremental stimulus policies and easing expectations [2]. - Different commodity sectors show various trends. Metals may have short - term fluctuations, energy chemicals are affected by supply - demand and geopolitical factors, and agricultural products are influenced by factors such as harvest seasons and trade policies. 3. Summary by Category Macro - finance - Overseas: Multiple Federal Reserve officials are paving the way for interest rate cuts. The Beige Book shows that economic activity is basically flat, the number of job openings in the US has unexpectedly dropped to the lowest level in nearly a year, indicating a slowdown in the job market, and the US dollar index has weakened [2]. - Domestic: China's official manufacturing PMI in August improved slightly to 49.4 but remained below the boom - bust line for five consecutive months. The Ministry of Commerce will introduce policies to expand service consumption in September. Market sentiment has cooled, and risk appetite has decreased [2]. - Asset Recommendations: Stock indices are expected to fluctuate in the short term, with a cautious long - position approach; treasury bonds are expected to remain at a high level and fluctuate, with a cautious wait - and - see attitude; different commodity sectors have different short - term trends and corresponding trading suggestions [2]. Stock Indices - The domestic stock market has declined significantly, dragged down by sectors such as military, small metals, and securities. The short - term upward macro - driving force has weakened, and attention should be paid to the progress of China - US trade negotiations and the implementation of domestic incremental policies. Short - term cautious wait - and - see is recommended [3]. Black Metals - Steel: The domestic steel spot and futures markets continued to be weak on Wednesday. Real - world demand has weakened, inventories have accumulated, and although there is short - term supply reduction due to production restrictions, the probability of steel mill复产 next week is high. The steel market is likely to remain weak in the short term [4]. - Iron Ore: On Wednesday, the spot and futures prices of iron ore rebounded slightly. Ore demand has decreased, but steel mills are likely to resume production next week. The supply of iron ore has increased this week, and the price is expected to fluctuate within a range in the short term [6]. - Silicon Manganese/Silicon Iron: On Wednesday, the spot prices of silicon iron and silicon manganese remained flat, and the futures prices declined slightly. The production in different regions has different trends, and the prices are expected to fluctuate within a range in the short term [7]. Non - ferrous Metals and New Energy - Copper: The US manufacturing PMI in August showed a slight slowdown in the contraction rate. Domestic demand is expected to weaken marginally, but a September Fed interest rate cut may briefly boost copper prices [9]. - Aluminum: On Wednesday, aluminum prices rose and then fell. The inventory has increased, and the medium - term upward space is limited. In the short term, it is expected to remain volatile [10]. - Aluminum Alloy: The supply of scrap aluminum is tight, and demand is weak. Considering cost support, the price is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term, but the upward space is limited [10]. - Tin: The combined operating rate in Yunnan and Jiangxi has decreased slightly. Supply is expected to ease, and demand is weak. The price is expected to fluctuate in the short term, with limited upward space [11]. - Lithium Carbonate: The main contract of lithium carbonate fell on Wednesday. It is expected to have a wide - range fluctuation, with a short - term short and long - term long view [11]. - Industrial Silicon: The main contract of industrial silicon fell on Wednesday. It is expected to fluctuate within a range [12]. - Polysilicon: The main contract of polysilicon rose on Wednesday. It is expected to remain at a high level and fluctuate in the short term, facing a game between strong expectations and weak reality [12]. Energy and Chemicals - Crude Oil: OPEC+ may consider further production increases, and the price will continue to be priced between supply surplus and geopolitical supply risks. The spot market has slightly recovered in the short term, and the futures market is waiting for long - term bearish signals [13][14]. - Asphalt: The asphalt market fluctuates following the oil price. The cost - driven logic exists in the short term. Attention should be paid to the extent of its follow - up increase with the oil price in the later stage [14]. - PX: The price of PX is generally weak, supported only by maintenance plans. It is expected to remain volatile and wait for changes in PTA devices [14]. - PTA: The price is affected by downstream start - up recovery and upstream costs. It is expected to continue narrow - range fluctuations in the short term, and attention should be paid to the recovery risks of crude oil and downstream demand [15]. - Ethylene Glycol: Due to overseas device problems, port inventory has decreased significantly. It is recommended to go long at low prices in the short term, but attention should be paid to downstream start - up recovery and crude oil cost fluctuations [15]. - Short - fiber: The short - fiber price has rebounded slightly. The follow - up upward space may be limited, and it is recommended to go short in the medium term [15]. - Methanol: The supply pressure is prominent, but the fundamentals show marginal improvement signs. The price is expected to fluctuate weakly [16]. - PP: The supply has reached a new high, and demand is weak. The 01 contract is expected to fluctuate weakly [16]. - LLDPE: The supply - demand contradiction is not prominent currently. The price is expected to fluctuate, and attention should be paid to the synchronous growth of demand [16]. Agricultural Products - US Soybeans: The price of US soybeans has weakened. The weekly crop growth report shows changes in the excellent - good rate, pod - setting rate, and defoliation rate. The export inspection volume has also been reported [18]. - Soybean Meal/Rapeseed Meal: The price of CBOT soybeans may be under pressure, and the risk preference of protein meals may decrease. Attention should be paid to China - Canada trade policies [19]. - Oils: The price of Malaysian palm oil futures has fallen. The inventory in August is expected to increase continuously. Domestic palm oil is expected to fluctuate in the short term [19]. - Corn: New - season corn has been slightly listed in Northeast China, and the market is in a wait - and - see state. The price in North China is stable, and the futures market has rebounded [20]. - Pigs: The supply and demand of pigs will both increase in September. The pig price is expected to show a weakly fluctuating trend [20].
研究所晨会观点精萃:多位美联储官员释放降息信号,全球风险偏好有所升温-20250904
Dong Hai Qi Huo·2025-09-04 01:24