五矿期货贵金属日报-20250904

Group 1: Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. Group 2: Core View - Based on the current personnel changes at the Federal Reserve and the statements of key figures, combined with the overall marginal weakening of the US labor market, the Fed will enter an interest - rate cut cycle that exceeds market expectations. There is a possibility of three consecutive 25 - basis - point interest - rate cuts in the next three Fed meetings, which will be a significant positive factor for precious metal prices. Silver will outperform gold during the interest - rate cut cycle, causing the gold - silver ratio to decline significantly. It is recommended to buy silver on dips, with the reference operating range for the main Shanghai gold contract being 809 - 836 yuan/gram and for the main Shanghai silver contract being 9526 - 10500 yuan/kilogram [3]. Group 3: Market Data Summary Gold - Futures Prices: Shanghai gold (Au) rose 1.40% to 821.68 yuan/gram, COMEX gold fell 0.51% to 3617.10 dollars/ounce, London gold rose 1.90% to 3556.20 dollars/ounce, and Au(T + D) rose 1.27% to 809.97 yuan/gram [2][4]. - Volume and Open Interest: COMEX gold trading volume decreased by 40.70% to 21.57 million lots, and open interest increased by 1.19% to 44.38 million lots; SHFE gold trading volume increased by 30.38% to 41.72 million lots, and open interest increased by 3.10% to 44.19 million lots [7]. - Inventory: COMEX gold inventory remained unchanged at 1212 tons, and SHFE gold inventory increased by 0.15% to 40.25 tons [7]. - ETF Holdings: SPDR gold ETF holdings decreased by 0.64% to 984.26 tons [4]. Silver - Futures Prices: Shanghai silver (Ag) rose 1.34% to 9918.00 yuan/kilogram, COMEX silver fell 0.93% to 41.67 dollars/ounce, London silver rose 0.84% to 40.86 dollars/ounce, and Ag(T + D) fell 0.20% to 9780.00 yuan/kilogram [2][4]. - Volume and Open Interest: COMEX silver trading volume data is not comprehensively presented, and open interest increased by 0.10% to 15.86 million lots; SHFE silver trading volume increased by 16.61% to 112.89 million lots, and open interest decreased by 1.20% to 85.10 million lots [7]. - Inventory: COMEX silver inventory decreased by 0.42% to 16052 tons, and SHFE silver inventory increased by 0.97% to 1227.04 tons [7]. - ETF Holdings: SLV silver ETF holdings decreased by 0.55% to 15281.40 tons [4]. Other Market Indicators - The US 10 - year Treasury yield was 4.22%, and the US dollar index was 98.15 [2]. - The Dow Jones Index fell 0.05%, the S&P 500 Index rose 0.51%, the Nasdaq Index rose 1.02%, the VIX Index fell 4.78%, the London FTSE 100 Index rose 0.67%, and the Tokyo Nikkei 225 Index fell 0.88% [4]. Group 4: Market Outlook and Factors - Fed officials' statements were divided last night, and the US labor market data weakened, increasing the market's expectation of Fed interest - rate cuts and supporting precious metal prices [2]. - Fed Governor Waller supported an interest - rate cut at the next meeting and expected inflation to approach the 2% target in six months; Atlanta Fed President Bostic believed one interest - rate cut this year was appropriate, with the pace adjusted according to inflation and employment [2]. - The US JOLTS job openings in July were 7.181 million, lower than expected and the previous value, indicating labor market weakness, which is a key condition for interest - rate cuts emphasized by Powell [2].