工业硅：驱动不足

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - In the "anti - involution" and current macro - relatively loose environment, the short - term valuation of industrial silicon is relatively reasonable, fluctuating with market sentiment and supply - demand changes, and lacking its own driving factors. The medium - to - long - term prospects depend on the redistribution of industrial chain profits and whether the capacity - reduction policy will spread further [2][31]. - In the short term, industrial silicon is still affected by the "weak reality," with high explicit inventory, increased supply pressure after producers increase hedging, lower costs during the wet season, limited demand boost, and the main downstream industry, polysilicon, facing capacity integration. In the medium - term, if the polysilicon capacity integration policy is successfully implemented, the demand for industrial silicon will lack support, and the price may approach the cash cost of most enterprises. If the industrial silicon industry also conducts "anti - involution" actions, the medium - to - long - term price is expected to move closer to the full cost of most enterprises [28][31]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs "Anti - involution" sentiment - influenced follow - up variety - In the rebound of industrial silicon, on June 4, industrial silicon and coking coal bottomed out before the polysilicon futures price. On June 26, driven by the news of a large factory shutting down furnaces, it broke through and rebounded. After a short peak and decline, on July 2, after the polysilicon futures price soared, industrial silicon, as an over - capacity variety, rose with the "anti - involution" sentiment, and the main contract price exceeded 10,000 yuan/ton at most. Polysilicon and coking coal were the star varieties in this "anti - involution" rally, while industrial silicon mainly followed [5]. - Although there were "anti - involution" related news in the industrial silicon industry, such as the initiative put forward by the Sichuan Ferroalloy (Industrial Silicon) Industry Association and the national industrial silicon industry "anti - involution" meeting, their actual impact on the industrial silicon futures was limited. The reasons were the market's desensitization to such information and the weak self - situation of industrial silicon [8]. - The difficulties of industrial silicon in "anti - involution" compared to polysilicon are: relatively low industry entry barriers, a large number of enterprises (nearly 200 effective - capacity enterprises), and unclear capacity - governance paths [9]. Weak reality remains - Supply side: In the northwest region, enterprises can maintain a relatively stable operating rate due to stable electricity prices, high utilization of hedging tools, and low production costs of large enterprises with self - supplied power. In the southwest region, the operating rate increased significantly after the wet season and the rebound of spot - futures prices. Since July, the number of open furnaces in major producing areas has increased, and the weekly output has grown for several weeks, so the supply pressure still exists [10][13]. - Demand side: In the first half of 2025, the cumulative year - on - year demand for industrial silicon downstream decreased by about 15%, mainly due to the significant reduction in polysilicon production. From January to July 2025, the cumulative output of silicone DMC was 1433,400 tons, a year - on - year increase of 18.17%, but the rapid expansion cycle may be approaching the end. From January to July, the cumulative output of polysilicon was 679,400 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 41.03%. The proportion of polysilicon in downstream demand decreased from 41% in 2024 to 30% in the first half of 2025, which was the biggest drag on industrial silicon demand. If the polysilicon capacity integration policy is implemented, industrial silicon will face the problem of insufficient effective demand [23]. - Inventory and profit: As of the end of August, the explicit inventory of industrial silicon was 688,200 tons, with more than 250,000 tons of warehouse - receipt inventory. Due to the rapid recovery of the supply side, inventory de - stocking was not obvious. After the price rebound, the profit improved. Most enterprises' cash costs were around 8500 - 9000 yuan, and the full cost was around 10,000 yuan. At the current price, enterprises can basically maintain cash flow, but are still in a loss state in terms of full cost. In 2025, the oversupply pattern will continue [26].