五矿期货文字早评-20250904

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views - The overall view of the market is complex, with different sectors showing various trends. The policy environment supports the capital market, but short - term fluctuations may occur. The Fed's interest - rate cut expectation affects multiple asset classes, and different industries have their own supply - demand and price characteristics. [2][3] - In the short term, there are opportunities for some assets such as precious metals, nickel, and crude oil, while others like steel, industrial silicon, and PVC face challenges due to supply - demand imbalances. [7][14][41] Summary by Category Macro - Financial Index Futures - News includes joint meetings of the Ministry of Finance and the central bank, Apple's product shipment adjustments, stock trading suspensions, and Fed's interest - rate cut signals. - The central government's policy supports the capital market, but short - term market fluctuations may intensify after recent rises. The general strategy is to go long on dips. [2][3] Treasury Bonds - On Wednesday, treasury bond futures rose. The Ministry of Finance will issue bonds, and global borrowers issued a large amount of investment - grade bonds. The central bank conducted reverse repurchase operations with a net回笼. - The manufacturing PMI improved in August but is still below the boom - bust line. The central bank maintains a loose attitude towards funds. Interest rates may decline in the long run, but the bond market may fluctuate in the short term. [4][5] Precious Metals - Domestic precious metals rose, while COMEX metals fell. Fed officials' statements and weak labor market data increased the expectation of interest - rate cuts, supporting precious metals prices. - The Fed may cut interest rates in the next three meetings, which is positive for precious metals. It is recommended to go long on silver at dips. [6][7] Non - Ferrous Metals Copper - Copper prices oscillated. LME and domestic inventories changed, and the import situation and scrap copper substitution advantage also changed. - The Fed is likely to cut interest rates, and the copper supply is tight. Although there is support for prices, the upward resistance may increase. [10] Aluminum - Aluminum prices declined. Domestic and LME inventories and other indicators changed, and the downstream purchasing enthusiasm was low. - The Fed's dovish signal and low domestic inventories support prices, but the short - term price may be volatile. [11] Zinc - Zinc prices fell. Zinc concentrate inventories increased, and the downstream start - up rate was low. - The industry shows an oversupply situation. Although the Fed may cut interest rates, the zinc price is expected to oscillate at a low level. [12] Lead - Lead prices rose slightly. Lead concentrate inventories decreased, and the supply of recycled lead decreased. - The Fed's interest - rate cut expectation and the reduction in lead supply support the upward movement of lead prices. [13] Nickel - Nickel prices oscillated narrowly. The Fed's interest - rate cut expectation and the demand for stainless steel support nickel prices. - Short - term macro - environment is positive, and nickel prices are expected to be supported in the long run. It is recommended to go long on dips. [14] Tin - Tin prices oscillated. Supply decreased due to slow复产 and planned maintenance, and demand was weak. - The short - term tin price is expected to oscillate due to the decrease in supply and weak demand. [15] Carbonate Lithium - Carbonate lithium prices declined. The lack of positive drivers led to a weak adjustment, and attention should be paid to overseas supply. [16] Alumina - Alumina prices fell. Ore supply disturbances support prices, but the oversupply situation limits the upward space. It is recommended to wait and see. [17] Stainless Steel - Stainless steel prices fell slightly. The Indonesian riot and the approaching consumption season may support prices. [18] Casting Aluminum Alloy - Casting aluminum alloy prices were slightly lower. The downstream is transitioning to the peak season, and the cost and market activity support high - level prices. [19][20] Black Building Materials Steel - Rebar prices rose slightly, and hot - rolled coil prices fell slightly. The overall market atmosphere was weak, and the supply - demand situation was not optimistic. - The demand for steel products is weak, and the price may continue to decline if the demand does not improve. [22][23] Iron Ore - Iron ore prices rose. Overseas shipments increased, and the iron - water output decreased. - The short - term iron ore price is expected to oscillate weakly due to increased supply and weak downstream demand. [24][25] Glass and Soda Ash - Glass prices were stable, and soda ash prices oscillated. Glass inventory decreased, and soda ash supply increased. - Glass prices may oscillate weakly in the short term and follow the macro - sentiment in the long term. Soda ash prices are expected to oscillate in the short term and may gradually rise in the long term. [26][27] Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - Manganese silicon and ferrosilicon prices fell slightly. The market is affected by the "anti - involution" sentiment and the weak demand for steel products. - Manganese silicon prices may remain weak before mid - October, and it is recommended to wait and see for speculative trading. [28][31] Industrial Silicon - Industrial silicon prices rose slightly. The over - capacity and weak demand problems remain, and the price is expected to oscillate weakly. [32][33] Polysilicon - Polysilicon prices rose. The market is in a "weak reality, strong expectation" situation, and the price is expected to fluctuate with high volatility. [34][35] Energy and Chemicals Rubber - Rubber prices oscillated. The weather in Thailand may affect production, and the tire industry has different operating rates. - The medium - term strategy is to be long, and the short - term is to go long on dips. [38][40] Crude Oil - Crude oil prices rose. Although the geopolitical premium has disappeared, the price is undervalued, and it is a good time for left - hand layout. [41] Methanol - Methanol prices rose. Supply increased, and demand was weak. It is recommended to wait and see. [42] Urea - Urea prices fell. Supply decreased in the short term, and demand was mainly concentrated on exports. It is recommended to go long on dips. [43] Styrene - Styrene futures prices rose, and the spot price fell. The BZN spread may repair, and the price may rebound after inventory reduction. [44][45] PVC - PVC prices fell. Supply was strong, demand was weak, and the export expectation was weak. It is recommended to go short. [46] Ethylene Glycol - Ethylene glycol prices fell. Supply was still excessive, and the medium - term inventory may increase. The short - term is supported by policies, and the medium - term valuation may decline. [47] PTA - PTA prices fell. Supply decreased, and demand improved. It is recommended to go long on dips following PX. [48][49] Para - Xylene - PX prices fell. The load was high, and the downstream PTA had many unexpected maintenance. The valuation has support, and it is recommended to go long on dips following crude oil. [50] Polyethylene (PE) - PE futures prices fell. The cost has support, and the price may oscillate upward. [51] Polypropylene (PP) - PP futures prices rose. Supply pressure is high, and demand is seasonally rebounding. It is recommended to go long on the LL - PP2601 contract at dips. [52][53] Agricultural Products Live Pigs - Pig prices were mostly stable with some declines. Supply is abundant, and demand is weak. It is recommended to wait and see and pay attention to low - level rebounds. [55] Eggs - Egg prices were stable or rose. Supply improved marginally, and demand increased due to pre - festival stocking. The short - term price may be easy to rise and difficult to fall. [56] Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - US soybeans fell, and domestic soybean meal rebounded slightly. US soybean demand is a concern, and the supply of protein raw materials is excessive globally. It is recommended to go long on dips in the cost range of soybean meal. [57][59] Oils and Fats - Oils and fats prices were weak. The export and production of palm oil in Malaysia changed, and the production of Australian rapeseed is expected to increase. It is recommended to view palm oil as oscillating strongly in the short term. [60][61] Sugar - Sugar prices fell. Domestic import supply increased, and there is an expectation of increased production in Guangxi. The overall view is bearish. [62][63] Cotton - Cotton prices fell slightly. Global cotton production and inventory are expected to decrease, and the short - term price may oscillate at a high level. [64][65]