Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views - The Fed's Beige Book indicates rising inflation and economic downturn risks in the US, increasing stagflation risks and driving up gold prices. The market awaits US non - farm data, with gold likely to fluctuate in the short term [1]. - API data shows crude oil inventory accumulation. The market is concerned about OPEC+ potentially canceling the second - layer production cuts ahead of schedule. The short - term driving force is weak, and it's advisable to wait and see [1]. - Short - term steel demand improvement is limited. Steel prices may fluctuate narrowly, and the demand recovery will determine the later trend [3]. - For coking coal, the supply is expected to shrink, and the demand from high - level hot metal production provides support. It should be viewed with a range - bound perspective in the short term [3]. - Silicon iron cost is supported, but the market supply - demand relationship is becoming looser. The short - term price decline is limited, and the price center will move down in the long term [4]. - Bond issuance may accelerate in the third quarter, affecting long - term bonds. The stock - bond seesaw is the main logic, and long - term bonds may fluctuate bearishly [5]. - US employment data shows economic pressure, and some Fed officials signal rate cuts. The market awaits non - farm data, and the impact of gold's fluctuations on silver should be noted [5]. - Rubber supply is increasing but slower than usual, and demand is weak. It should be treated with a range - bound view [6]. - Methanol domestic production is rising, and the port inventory is accumulating. The 01 contract is expected to fluctuate in the short term [7]. - The domestic soda ash market is weakly stable and may fluctuate downward in the short term [8]. - PTA supply is expected to increase, and its price should be treated with a bearish - fluctuating view [9]. - Short - term hog prices are weak in the near term and strong in the long term, and relevant trading strategies can be considered [10]. - Domestic and imported soybeans' prices are under pressure, and the US crop growth and international relations should be monitored [12]. - The market expects a bearish MPOB report for Malaysian palm oil, and trading should be short - selling on rallies [13]. - LLDPE prices are weak, and the L2601 contract may fluctuate downward in the short term [14]. Summary by Variety Precious Metals - Gold: The Fed's Beige Book shows rising inflation and economic downturn risks in the US, increasing stagflation risks, which is the driving force for gold's rise. The market awaits US non - farm data, and gold may fluctuate in the short term [1]. - Silver: US employment data shows economic pressure, and some Fed officials signal rate cuts. The market awaits non - farm data, and the impact of gold's fluctuations on silver should be noted [5]. Energy - Crude Oil: API data shows crude oil inventory accumulation. The market is concerned about OPEC+ potentially canceling the second - layer production cuts ahead of schedule. The short - term driving force is weak, and it's advisable to wait and see [1]. Metals - Steel: Short - term demand improvement is limited. Steel prices may fluctuate narrowly, and the demand recovery will determine the later trend [3]. - Coking Coal: The supply is expected to shrink, and the demand from high - level hot metal production provides support. It should be viewed with a range - bound perspective in the short term, and the 2601 contract can be traded within the 1050 - 1200 range [3]. - Silicon Iron: Cost is supported, but the market supply - demand relationship is becoming looser. The short - term price decline is limited, and the price center will move down in the long term. It's advisable to wait for short - selling opportunities [4]. Bonds - Long - term Treasury Bonds: Bond issuance may accelerate in the third quarter, affecting long - term bonds. The stock - bond seesaw is the main logic, and long - term bonds may fluctuate bearishly [5]. Agricultural Products - Soybeans: Domestic new - season soybeans are expected to increase in production, and the continuous release of state - reserve old grains and weak downstream demand put pressure on prices. The US crop growth and international relations should be monitored [12]. - Palm Oil: The market expects a bearish MPOB report for Malaysian palm oil. The domestic import profit is in a deeper inversion. It's advisable to short - sell on rallies [13]. Chemicals - Rubber: Supply is increasing but slower than usual, and demand is weak. It should be treated with a range - bound view [6]. - Methanol: Domestic production is rising, and the port inventory is accumulating. The 01 contract is expected to fluctuate in the short term, with resistance at 2405. It's advisable to wait and see [7]. - Soda Ash: The domestic market is weakly stable and may fluctuate downward in the short term, with resistance at 1290. It's advisable to wait and see or short - sell on rallies [8]. - PTA: Supply is expected to increase, and its price should be treated with a bearish - fluctuating view [9]. Others - Plastic (LLDPE): Prices are weak, and the L2601 contract may fluctuate downward in the short term, with resistance at 7255. It's advisable to short - sell on rallies [14]. - Hogs: Short - term prices are weak in the near term and strong in the long term. It's advisable to short the near - month contract and long the far - month contract or for farmers to sell - hedge according to the slaughter schedule [10].
宁证期货今日早评-20250904
Ning Zheng Qi Huo·2025-09-04 01:18