综合晨报：美国7月职位空缺低于预期，OPEC+或考虑再次增产-20250904

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The labor market in the US is showing signs of weakness, with the number of job openings in July lower than expected, which has led to an increase in market risk appetite and a decline in the US dollar index. - The A - share market had a significant correction on September 3, and due to the possible phased withdrawal of funds, it is recommended to shift from a unilateral long - strategy to a hedging strategy. - The bond market showed a relatively strong performance at the beginning of September, but the upside space is limited, and long - position holders are advised to hold but be cautious about chasing the market higher. - The US soybean harvest is basically certain this year, but concerns about US soybean exports have resurfaced due to the stagnant Chinese purchases. - OPEC + is considering increasing production again, which has led to concerns in the market and a significant drop in oil prices. - The container shipping market still faces significant over - capacity pressure, and the downward trend of freight rates remains unchanged. [1][2][3][4][5][6] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Financial News and Comments 3.1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - Fed officials' statements show that the labor market has a downward risk, and the decline in job openings in July has strengthened the market's expectation of a Fed rate cut. Gold prices rose to a record high and then narrowed their gains. It is recommended to wait for the US non - farm payrolls report in August, as gold price fluctuations will increase. [13][15][16] 3.1.2 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - Fed Governor Waller supports starting the rate - cut cycle in two weeks. The number of job openings in the US in July was lower than expected, indicating a weakening labor market, which led to a decline in the US dollar index. It is recommended that the US dollar index will decline in the short term. [17][18][19] 3.1.3 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - The Fed's Beige Book shows that consumer spending is flat or declining, and prices are rising in various regions. The decline in job openings has made the Fed's case for a rate cut in September more compelling. Under the expectation of a rate cut, the US stock market is expected to remain volatile and strong. [20][22][23] 3.1.4 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - Multiple provinces have raised the minimum wage standard this year. The joint working group of the Ministry of Finance and the central bank held a meeting. The A - share market had a significant correction on September 3, and it is recommended to shift from a unilateral long - strategy to a hedging strategy. [24][26][27] 3.1.5 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - The central bank conducted 229.1 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations. The stock index has been adjusting continuously, and the bond market is expected to be slightly stronger in the short term, but the upside space is limited. It is recommended that long - position holders continue to hold but not chase the market higher after the price increase. [28][29] 3.2 Commodity News and Comments 3.2.1 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - Allendale predicts that the US soybean yield per acre in 2025 will be 53.28 bushels, and the US soybean harvest is basically certain this year. However, Chinese purchases of US soybeans have remained stagnant, and concerns about US soybean exports have resurfaced. It is recommended to continue to monitor the weather in US soybean - producing areas and the development of Sino - US relations. [30][32][33] 3.2.2 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - Market institutions generally expect that the inventory of Malaysian palm oil will continue to accumulate in August. The main variable lies in domestic consumption. It is recommended to pay attention to the final MPOB data. [34] 3.2.3 Black Metals (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - More than 4,500 plots of land across the country plan to use special bond funds for land acquisition. The preliminary statistics show that the retail sales of the national passenger car market increased by 3% year - on - year in August. Steel prices are expected to remain weakly volatile in the near future. [35][36][37] 3.2.4 Agricultural Products (Corn Starch) - The inventory and operating rate of starch enterprises have both declined. The supply - demand situation remains weak, and the difference between futures and rice prices remains low. It is expected that the further weakening space is limited. [38][39] 3.2.5 Agricultural Products (Corn) - The inventory at the northern ports has continued to decline and is lower than that in 2023. However, due to the different inventory distribution structure in the industrial chain, it is not a seller - favorable market. It is recommended to pay attention to new short - selling opportunities on rallies. [39][40] 3.2.6 Agricultural Products (Sugar) - Domestic sugar production area sales data in August are bearish. Affected by Brazil's strong production and supply, ICE raw sugar remains weak. It is recommended to wait for opportunities to buy on dips around the expected cost of new sugar in the next season. [44][45] 3.2.7 Black Metals (Steam Coal) - The price of steam coal at northern ports was weakly stable on September 3. After the end of the environmental protection impact, there may be pressure on upstream enterprises to sell off their goods, but considering the expected anti - involution policy, the overall coal price is expected to have support around 750 yuan. [46] 3.2.8 Black Metals (Iron Ore) - The sales of new energy vehicles in August showed a significant month - on - month increase. After the end of the parade, northern steel mills are expected to resume production, and short - term iron ore prices are expected to be strong, but if the demand continues to weaken, the price may decline after a short - term stabilization. [47] 3.2.9 Agricultural Products (Red Dates) - The price of red dates in the Hebei market has slightly declined. The growth of red dates in Xinjiang is normal. It is recommended to wait and see and not blindly chase the market higher, and focus on the weather in the producing areas and subsequent on - the - spot research. [48][49] 3.2.10 Agricultural Products (Pigs) - The average weight of pigs for slaughter continues to decline. The short - term fundamentals may lack a strong driving force, and it is recommended to take a short - term oscillatory view and continue to hold the long - term reverse spread structure. [50][51] 3.2.11 Non - ferrous Metals (Polysilicon) - India's photovoltaic installed capacity increased significantly in the first half of 2025. The polysilicon spot price is expected to be easy to rise but difficult to fall. The component price is expected to rise, but the terminal demand may decline. It is recommended to consider the cost - performance of betting on subsequent policies when the futures price falls below the spot price. [52][54][55] 3.2.12 Non - ferrous Metals (Industrial Silicon) - The market share of granular silicon of GCL Technology reached 24.32% in the first half of the year. The resumption of production of large factories in Xinjiang is slower than expected. It is recommended to pay attention to the resumption progress and look for trading opportunities in the range of 8,200 - 9,200 yuan/ton. [56][57][58] 3.2.13 Non - ferrous Metals (Lead) - The LME lead market shows a weak trend, and there are rumors of Russian lead imports in the domestic market. The supply of recycled lead may tighten in September, and the demand may improve marginally. It is recommended to wait and see and pay attention to the opportunity of long - domestic and short - overseas arbitrage. [59] 3.2.14 Non - ferrous Metals (Zinc) - The LME zinc market shows a short - term strengthening trend, which drives the Shanghai zinc market to be relatively strong. The global visible inventory has been declining, and the domestic social inventory has increased. It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term, pay attention to the mid - term positive spread arbitrage opportunity, and maintain the positive spread arbitrage idea before the overseas inventory bottoms out. [60] 3.2.15 Non - ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - Chuanneng Power's lithium salt project has successfully produced battery - grade lithium carbonate products. The export of Chilean lithium carbonate decreased by 19.2% month - on - month in August. It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity to go long after the inventory reduction cycle and the strengthening of the basis, as well as the positive spread arbitrage opportunity. [61][63] 3.2.16 Non - ferrous Metals (Nickel) - The LME nickel inventory increased. There are uncertainties in the supply side due to large - scale demonstrations in Jakarta. The price of nickel ore is unexpectedly firm, and the price of nickel iron is expected to be strong in the future. It is recommended to lay out long positions at the lower end of the range. [64][65][66] 3.2.17 Energy Chemicals (Liquefied Petroleum Gas) - Some PDH and PP devices have maintenance plans. The price of the Panama Canal's new lock auction has risen. The price is expected to remain volatile in the short term, and it is recommended to pay attention to OPEC +'s decision on production increase this weekend. [67][68][69] 3.2.18 Energy Chemicals (Crude Oil) - The API crude oil inventory in the US increased slightly. OPEC + is considering increasing production again, which may put pressure on oil prices. Oil prices are expected to be volatile and weak. [70][71][72] 3.2.19 Energy Chemicals (Urea) - The total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises increased slightly. The supply pressure is expected to continue, and the demand is currently weak. Although the agricultural demand is expected to improve marginally in the autumn, the market sentiment is cautious, and attention should be paid to the downward risk after the export game fades. [73][74] 3.2.20 Energy Chemicals (PX) - The PX price continued to decline. The domestic PX load changed little, and the overseas PX load increased marginally. The short - term price is expected to be in an oscillatory adjustment, and it is recommended to pay attention to the 11 - 1 positive spread arbitrage opportunity. [75][76] 3.2.21 Energy Chemicals (PTA) - The PTA spot price declined, and the demand needs further observation. The supply side has more maintenance recently, and the inventory has changed from accumulation to reduction. The short - term price is expected to be in an oscillatory and weak adjustment. [77][78][79] 3.2.22 Energy Chemicals (Styrene) - The inventory of styrene production enterprises increased. The short - term inventory accumulation pressure may slow down marginally, but the weak expectation in Q4 and the potential over - inventory problem will still suppress the valuation of the pure benzene - styrene industry chain. [80][82] 3.2.23 Energy Chemicals (Caustic Soda) - The caustic soda market in Shandong was stable, with sufficient supply and weak demand. The price is expected to remain stable in the short term, and the futures market is expected to fluctuate at a high level. [83][84][85] 3.2.24 Energy Chemicals (Pulp) - The import pulp spot market was mainly stable, with only a few prices rising slightly. The pulp market is expected to be in a weak oscillatory trend. [86][87] 3.2.25 Energy Chemicals (PVC) - The price of domestic PVC powder was stable with a slight decline, and the downstream purchasing enthusiasm was not high. The fundamentals of PVC are under short - term pressure, but the downward space is limited. [88][89] 3.2.26 Energy Chemicals (Bottle Chips) - The export quotes of bottle - chip factories were mostly stable, with partial minor adjustments. Some large factories' devices have changed, and there are still new production capacity plans in the fourth quarter. The downstream demand is gradually moving into the off - season. [90][91] 3.2.27 Energy Chemicals (Soda Ash) - The soda ash market in the Shahe area was generally weak, with the futures price oscillating. The supply and demand situation is weak and stable, and it is recommended to maintain a short - selling strategy on rallies and pay attention to supply - side disturbances. [92][93] 3.2.28 Energy Chemicals (Float Glass) - The price of float glass in the Shahe market was stable. The market sentiment was weak, and the demand has not improved substantially. It is recommended to operate cautiously on the long - short side and focus on the arbitrage strategy of going long on glass and short on soda ash when the price difference widens. [94][95] 3.2.29 Shipping Index (Container Freight Rates) - The EU is considering postponing the implementation of the marine fuel tax for 10 years. The container shipping market still faces significant over - capacity pressure, and the downward trend of freight rates remains unchanged. It is recommended to take an oscillatory view in the short term and pay attention to the short - selling opportunity after the emotional increase in October and the long - buying value after the decline in December. [96][97]