生猪日报：期价震荡调整-20250904

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoint - The report suggests that the hog price will experience a period of oscillatory adjustment. The supply of hogs is expected to increase monthly until December, making it difficult for hog prices to rise significantly. However, the stable and rebounding price difference between 150Kg hogs and standard hogs will support the price to some extent. If the farming sector continues to reduce the weight of hogs or maintain a stable weight, the hog price may oscillate and adjust, which is beneficial to the November contract. Considering that the November contract is almost at par with the spot price, it is recommended to wait and see for now [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Sections Market Dynamics - On September 3, the registered hog warehouse receipts were 430 lots. The short - term spot price has limited room for further decline, and attention should be paid to the extent of further weight reduction of hogs. The main hog contract (LH2511) increased its positions by 208 lots today, with a holding of about 73,600 lots. The highest price was 13,600 yuan/ton, the lowest was 13,510 yuan/ton, and it closed at 13,550 yuan/ton [2]. Fundamental Analysis - From the perspective of the number of breeding sows, the supply of hogs is expected to increase monthly from March to December, but the increase is limited. According to the piglet data, the hog slaughter volume will generally increase in the third and fourth quarters of 2025. On the demand side, consumption in the second half of the year is better than that in the first half. Historically, the price difference between fat and standard hogs may strengthen oscillatory. The market has both bearish and bullish logics. The bearish view believes that the weight - reduction of the farming sector is slow and difficult, the supply pressure has not been fully released, the subsequent slaughter volume is expected to continue to increase, and the demand support for hog prices is limited as the third quarter is not the peak consumption season. The bullish view holds that the farming sector has reduced the weight of hogs, which is beneficial to the future market, the spot price is resilient, indicating that the supply - demand situation is not as loose as the bears think, and although there will be an increase in the subsequent slaughter volume, the increase is limited, and the third and fourth quarters are gradually entering the peak consumption season for hogs [3]. Strategy Suggestion - The view is oscillatory adjustment. The core logic is that based on the data of sows and piglets, the hog slaughter volume may increase monthly until December, and it is difficult for hog prices to rise significantly under sufficient supply. The stable and rebounding price difference between 150Kg hogs and standard hogs will weaken the weight - reduction willingness of individual farmers and support the hog price. If the farming sector continues to reduce the weight of hogs or maintain a stable weight, the hog price may oscillate and adjust, which is beneficial to the November contract. Considering that the November contract is almost at par with the spot price, it is recommended to wait and see [4]. Market Overview - On September 3, the national average hog slaughter price was 13.97 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.06 yuan/kg or 0.43% from the previous day. The hog slaughter price in Henan was 14.02 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.06 yuan/kg or 0.43% from the previous day, and the price in Sichuan remained unchanged at 13.84 yuan/kg. Among the futures prices, the 01 contract increased by 55 yuan/ton or 0.4%, the 03 contract increased by 35 yuan/ton or 0.27%, the 05 contract increased by 75 yuan/ton or 0.55%, the 07 contract increased by 95 yuan/ton or 0.67%, the 09 contract decreased by 85 yuan/ton or 0.64%, and the 11 contract decreased by 45 yuan/ton or 0.33% [6]. Key Data Tracking - The report presents data on the national hog slaughter price, sample enterprise slaughter volume, white - strip pork average price, national corn purchase average price, futures contract closing prices in the past 180 days, the basis of the main hog contract in Henan, and the price differences between different contracts, but specific numerical analysis is not provided in the text, only the data trends are shown through charts [7][8][9][10][11][12][13].