宝城期货国债期货早报-20250904

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoint of the Report The overall view of treasury bond futures is to oscillate. In the short - term, they are likely to be in an oscillatory consolidation phase with limited upside and downside potential. In the medium - term, they are expected to oscillate, and in the long - term, there is a relatively high possibility of an upward trend [1][5]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For the TL2512 variety, the short - term view is oscillatory, the medium - term view is oscillatory, the intraday view is weakly oscillatory, and the overall view is oscillatory. The core logic is that there are still long - and medium - term expectations for interest rate cuts, but the possibility of a short - term comprehensive interest rate cut is low [1]. 3.2 Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - The intraday view for varieties such as TL, T, TF, and TS is weakly oscillatory, the medium - term view is oscillatory, and the reference view is oscillatory. The core logic is that treasury bond futures rebounded oscillatoryly yesterday. Recently, the stock market has entered a short - term adjustment, increasing risk - aversion sentiment. Market interest rates are restricted by policy rates, limiting their upward space and causing treasury bond futures to bottom out. However, due to the lack of necessity for a short - term comprehensive interest rate cut and the focus on structural easing, the short - term rebound space of treasury bond futures is limited. In the future, the monetary policy environment is generally loose, and with the increasing expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut, the depreciation pressure on the RMB exchange rate has weakened, leaving room for interest rate cuts and increasing the long - term upward possibility of treasury bond futures [5].