国投期货能源日报-20250904

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: ★★★ [1] - Fuel oil: ★★★ [1] - Low-sulfur fuel oil: ★★★ [1] - Asphalt: ★☆★ [1] - Liquefied petroleum gas (LPG): ★★★ [1] Core Views - The oil market supply and demand have been basically balanced since the third quarter, but the inventory accumulation pressure is expected to increase due to OPEC+ production increase in September and weaker demand after the peak season, providing a bearish guidance for oil prices [2] - High-sulfur fuel oil has relatively weak follow-up increase compared to crude oil, while low-sulfur fuel oil has given back most of its previous gains. The supply pressure of LU has eased, and FU has received a phased geopolitical premium boost [3] - The geopolitical conflict between Venezuela and the US may affect Venezuelan oil shipments. The inventories of asphalt have continued to decline, and the short-term BU is expected to fluctuate strongly [4] - After the end of the gas off-season, LPG shows certain resilience. The import cost increase and domestic demand rebound support the price, and the short-term futures market shows a pattern of near-term strength and far-term weakness [5] Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - Overnight international oil prices rose, with the SC10 contract rising 0.57% intraday. The net long positions in overseas crude oil futures and options are at a low level, and oil prices are still sensitive to geopolitical fluctuations. The US issued a new round of sanctions against Iranian oil sales on Tuesday [2] - Consider the opportunity to short on rallies when the SC11 contract rebounds above 495 yuan/barrel driven by this round of geopolitical fluctuations, and use out-of-the-money call options for protection [2] Fuel Oil & Low-sulfur Fuel Oil - High-sulfur fuel oil has relatively weak follow-up increase compared to crude oil, and low-sulfur fuel oil has given back most of its previous gains. The inventories of Singapore and Fujairah have both increased month-on-month [3] - The third batch of quotas has been issued much later than market expectations. As the utilization rate increases, the supply pressure of LU has eased, providing certain support for prices. The FU warehouse receipts decreased by 11,280 tons today, and the geopolitical conflicts in high-sulfur resource supply countries have given FU a phased geopolitical premium boost [3] Asphalt - The geopolitical conflict between Venezuela and the US is intensifying, and it is necessary to track and observe whether it will affect Venezuelan oil shipments [4] - The latest data shows that both factory and social inventories have continued to decline, meeting the previous expectation of marginal tightening of supply and demand. The short-term BU is expected to fluctuate strongly, and the 10 contract is strongly supported at 3,500 yuan/ton [4] - For the spread strategy, continue to pay attention to the opportunity to go long on the cracking spread between BU and the SC10 contract on pullbacks [4] LPG - LPG prices have remained stable in September. After the end of the gas off-season, it shows certain resilience. After the previous rapid decline, the bearish pressure has been released, and the international market has strong bottom support due to the strong chemical demand in East Asia recently [5] - The increase in import cost and the rebound in domestic demand support the price, and the price of civil gas has been raised. Although the high level of warehouse receipts puts pressure on the futures market, the stabilization of the spot market eases the delivery pressure, and the high basis pattern remains. The short-term futures market shows a pattern of near-term strength and far-term weakness [5]