中辉期货今日重点推荐-20250904

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Short - term outlook: For soybean meal, rapeseed meal, palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil, the short - term trends are respectively short - term stop - falling consolidation, short - term stop - falling consolidation, short - term adjustment, short - term adjustment, and short - term adjustment. For cotton, jujube, and live pigs, the short - term views are cautiously bullish [2]. - Long - term outlook: For live pigs, in the medium - to - long - term, the inventory scale remains at a relatively high level, but the production capacity is gradually being reduced. As demand recovers, the market will show a pattern of both supply and demand booming in the future [20]. 3. Summary by Variety Soybean Meal - Market data: The futures price of the main contract closed at 3066 yuan/ton, up 0.52% from the previous day. The national average spot price was 3081.43 yuan/ton, up 0.04%. The national average soybean crushing profit was - 86.8599 yuan/ton, up 14.20 yuan/ton from the previous day [3]. - Supply and demand: As of August 29, 2025, the national port soybean inventory was 905.6 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 15.80 million tons. The soybean inventory of 125 oil mills was 696.85 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.10%, and the soybean meal inventory was 107.88 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.42% [4]. - Market trend: The weekend ProFarmer survey estimated the US soybean yield at 53 bushels, lower than the USDA's August forecast, and the US soybean area had less rainfall than normal. The domestic soybean meal followed the US soybean to rise, with a short - term stop - falling consolidation and rebound intention. But as the US soybean harvest approaches, the bullish view is only for short - term speculative rebound [2][5]. Rapeseed Meal - Market data: The futures price of the main contract closed at 2521 yuan/ton, up 0.84% from the previous day. The national average spot price was 2665.26 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The national average rapeseed spot pressing profit was - 324.367 yuan/ton, up 17.20 yuan/ton from the previous day [6]. - Supply and demand: As of August 29, the coastal area's main oil mills' rapeseed inventory was 12.9 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.4 million tons; the rapeseed meal inventory was 2.5 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.4 million tons; the unexecuted contracts were 6 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.15 million tons [7]. - Market trend: New Canadian rapeseed is entering the harvest stage. Trade policies and high inventory lead to a mix of bullish and bearish factors, and the market is expected to be range - bound. Pay attention to the follow - up progress between China and Australia and Canada's attitude towards China's anti - dumping results [2][7]. Palm Oil - Market data: As of August 29, 2025, the national key area's palm oil commercial inventory was 61.01 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 4.81%. Malaysia's palm oil exports from August 1 - 31 were 1.421486 million tons, a 10.22% increase from the previous month [8]. - Market trend: Indonesia and Malaysia's biodiesel policies are bullish for the palm oil market's consumption expectations, and there is purchasing demand from China and India. The fundamental outlook is bullish, and the strategy is to go long on dips. Pay attention to the technical stabilization opportunities and the final estimated inventory of Malaysian palm oil in August [8]. Cotton - Market data: The main contract CF2601 closed at 13990 yuan/ton, down 0.39% from the previous day. The domestic spot price was 15460 yuan/ton, up 0.30%. The ICE cotton main contract rose 0.27% to 66.23 cents/pound [9][11]. - Supply and demand: In the US, the non - drought rate in the cotton area rose to 59%, and the excellent - good rate was stable at 54%. In Brazil, the cotton harvest rate was 87.6% as of August 30. In China, the new cotton is mostly in the boll - opening stage. The domestic cotton commercial inventory decreased to 171.26 million tons, and the demand showed marginal improvement [11][12]. - Market trend: The recent improvement in the US cotton soil moisture is bearish for the market, but the international cotton price is undervalued. In China, there is still a tight supply situation before the new cotton is listed. The "Golden September and Silver October" stocking market has started. The strategy is to go long on dips in the short - term and consider the long - short rhythm conversion in the middle of the month [13]. Jujube - Market data: The main contract CJ2601 closed at 11325 yuan/ton, down 0.48% from the previous day [14]. - Supply and demand: The main jujube - producing areas are in the coloring and sugar - increasing stage. The estimated new - season output is 56 - 62 million tons, a decrease compared to previous years. The inventory of 36 sample enterprises was 9456 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 63 tons [16]. - Market trend: It is estimated that the total output of Xinjiang southern jujube in 2025/26 will be in the range of 50 - 58 million tons, with a definite reduction in production. In the short - term, beware of the speculation of cracked fruits in rainy days. The demand side is gradually entering the stocking market, and the strategy is to go long on dips [17]. Live Pigs - Market data: The main contract Lh2511 closed at 13550 yuan/ton, down 0.33% from the previous day. The domestic live pig spot price was 13940 yuan/ton, up 0.07% [18][19]. - Supply and demand: In September, the planned slaughter volume is expected to increase by 1.29% month - on - month. The number of sows capable of reproduction decreased by 10,000 to 40.42 million in July. The demand is expected to improve marginally in the next 1 - 2 months [19]. - Market trend: The planned slaughter in September and the reduction of sows capable of reproduction continue to put pressure on the spot market. In the medium - to - long - term, the production capacity is gradually being reduced. As demand recovers, the market will show a pattern of both supply and demand booming, and the price center may gradually rise in the peak consumption season. It is not recommended to chase short positions in the short - term, and pay attention to the opportunity to establish long positions on dips [20].