尿素早评：关注逢低做多机会-20250904

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - Recommend a strategy of buying on dips for urea futures, as the current domestic situation shows strong supply and weak demand, but from a valuation perspective, the current urea price is oscillating at a low level, and upstream profits are also relatively low, so the urea valuation is not high; from a driving perspective, there are two potential upward drivers for urea prices in the second half of the year: supply - side has an expectation of old - device renovation (about 20% of urea devices are over 20 years old and the current comprehensive operating rate is over 80% with limited idle capacity), and demand - side has an expectation of improved exports (optimistic about urea exports from September to October considering the easing of Sino - Indian relations). Therefore, it is recommended to focus on the opportunity to buy on dips for the 01 contract [1] Summary by Related Catalogs Urea Futures Prices - On September 3, UR01 closed at 1714 yuan/ton, down 32 yuan or 1.83% from September 2; UR05 closed at 1757 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan or 1.68%; UR09 closed at 1658 yuan/ton, down 19 yuan or 1.13% [1] Spot Prices - Domestic small - particle urea spot prices in Shandong, Shanxi, Henan, Hebei, Northeast, and Jiangsu remained unchanged on September 3 compared with September 2 [1] Basis and Spreads - The basis of Shandong spot - UR increased by 30 yuan to - 47 yuan/ton; the 01 - 05 spread decreased by 2 yuan to - 43 yuan/ton [1] Upstream Costs - The prices of anthracite coal in Henan and Shanxi remained unchanged at 1000 yuan/ton and 900 yuan/ton respectively on September 3 compared with September 2 [1] Downstream Prices - The prices of compound fertilizer (45%S) in Shandong and Henan remained unchanged; the price of melamine in Shandong decreased by 10 yuan or 0.19% to 5166 yuan/ton, while that in Jiangsu remained unchanged at 5300 yuan/ton [1] Important Information - On the previous trading day, the opening price of the urea futures main contract 2601 was 1752 yuan/ton, the highest price was 1764 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 1710 yuan/ton, the closing price was 1714 yuan/ton, the settlement price was 1737 yuan/ton, and the position was 232,728 lots [1]