碳酸锂日评：持仓注意保护，不宜过度看空-20250904

Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core View - On September 3, the main contract of lithium carbonate futures declined, with trading volume at 442,800 lots (-177,641) and open interest at 346,048 lots (-2,061). The spot market had average trading, and the basis premium narrowed. In terms of cost, spodumene concentrate prices and mica prices both decreased. On the supply side, last week's lithium carbonate production slightly declined, and the production of lithium carbonate from different raw materials changed little. Among downstream customers, last week, the production of lithium iron phosphate and ternary materials increased. In September, the production schedule of lithium cobalt oxide and lithium manganate increased, and last week, the production of power batteries increased. In terms of terminal demand, in August, the year - on - year growth rate of new energy vehicle production slowed down; 3C shipments were average; in September, the production schedule of energy - storage batteries increased. In terms of inventory, registered warehouse receipts were 34,118 tons (+2,111), social inventory decreased, smelter inventory decreased, while downstream and other inventories increased. Overall, with good profits, high lithium carbonate production, rising downstream demand, and decreasing social inventory, short - term supply and demand both strengthened. The disturbance at the Jiangxi mine end was eliminated, the short - term fundamentals changed little, and the market was still affected by news. It is expected that the lithium carbonate price will fluctuate widely. It is not advisable to be overly bearish. In terms of operation, it is recommended to conduct short - term range trading, and use options to protect positions. Appropriate profit - taking is advised for the previously bought straddle options. (View score: 0) [1] Summary by Relevant Data Futures Market Data - On September 3, the closing prices of near - month, consecutive - one, consecutive - two, and consecutive - three contracts of lithium carbonate futures were 72,080 yuan/ton, 71,860 yuan/ton, 72,000 yuan/ton, and 72,000 yuan/ton respectively, all showing a decline compared to the previous day. The overall closing price was 71,880 yuan/ton, down 740 yuan. The trading volume was 442,800 lots (-177,641), and the open interest of the active contract was 346,048 lots (-2,061). The inventory was 34,118 tons (+2,111). The spreads between different contracts also changed, such as the near - month - consecutive - one spread narrowing by 400 yuan [1]. Spot Market Data - The prices of various lithium - related products in the spot market showed different trends. For example, the average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 75,900 yuan/ton (-1,600), and the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 73,600 yuan/ton (-1,600). The prices of lithium ore, including spodumene concentrate and lithium mica, decreased. The prices of some lithium compounds like lithium hydroxide and lithium hexafluorophosphate also changed to some extent [1]. Production and Inventory Data - Last week, the production of lithium carbonate slightly declined, and the production of lithium carbonate from different raw materials changed little. The production of lithium iron phosphate and ternary materials increased last week. In September, the production schedule of lithium cobalt oxide and lithium manganate increased, and last week, the production of power batteries increased. The SMM lithium carbonate inventory data showed that the total inventory decreased by 407 tons compared to the previous week, with different trends among smelters, downstream, and other sectors [1]. Industry News - Chile's customs data showed that in August, the country's lithium export volume was 20,114 tons, including 16,902 tons of lithium carbonate, and 1,298 tons were exported to China. Sichuan Energy Power's 30,000 - ton lithium project in Sichuan Energy De'ao Industrial Co., Ltd. successfully produced qualified battery - grade lithium carbonate products, which is expected to have an annual output value of 2.4 billion yuan and drive local employment. After commissioning, it will form a mining - smelting integration linkage with the company's Lijiagou lithium mine project [1]