甲醇日评：等待做多机会-20250904

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoint - The report believes that methanol is in a low - level oscillation state. It is recommended to wait for long - making opportunities. Although the upstream coal - based profit is still high, the coastal profit has rebounded to a high level, and the valuation of East China methanol price relative to downstream is low, with limited further downward space. In the short term, the upward driving force is limited due to high port inventory and insufficient restocking motivation of MTO enterprises. However, considering the low East China spot price and the approaching traditional downstream peak season, there may be opportunities to go long later [1] Summary According to Related Catalogs 1. Futures and Spot Prices and Basis - Methanol Futures Prices (Closing Prices): MA01 increased from 2372.00 yuan/ton to 2382.00 yuan/ton, a change of 10.00 yuan/ton or 0.42%; MA05 increased from 2372.00 yuan/ton to 2379.00 yuan/ton, a change of 7.00 yuan/ton or 0.30%; MA09 increased from 2212.00 yuan/ton to 2226.00 yuan/ton, a change of 14.00 yuan/ton or 0.63% [1] - Methanol Spot Prices (Daily Average): Prices in regions such as Taicang, Shandong, Guangdong, Shaanxi, and Inner Mongolia increased, while those in Sichuan - Chongqing and Hubei remained unchanged. For example, Taicang increased from 2235.00 yuan/ton to 2252.50 yuan/ton, a change of 17.50 yuan/ton or 0.78% [1] - Basis: The basis of Taicang spot - MA increased from - 137.00 yuan/ton to - 129.50 yuan/ton, a change of 7.50 yuan/ton [1] 2. Raw Material Prices - Coal Spot Prices: The prices of Datong Q5500 and Yulin Q6000 remained unchanged at 547.50 yuan/ton [1] - Industrial Natural Gas Prices: The prices in Hohhot and Chongqing remained unchanged at 3.21 yuan/cubic meter and 3.14 yuan/cubic meter respectively [1] 3. Profit Situation - Methanol Production Profits: Coal - based methanol profit increased from 398.90 yuan/ton to 405.20 yuan/ton, a change of 6.30 yuan/ton or 1.58%; natural - gas - based methanol profit remained unchanged at - 442.00 yuan/ton [1] - MTO Profits: Northwest MTO profit decreased from 303.00 yuan/ton to 44.60 yuan/ton, a decline of 258.40 yuan/ton or 85.28%; East China MTO profit decreased from - 371.07 yuan/ton to - 388.07 yuan/ton, a decline of 17.00 yuan/ton or 4.58% [1] - Methanol Downstream Profits: The profit of acetic acid increased from 348.47 yuan/ton to 376.53 yuan/ton, a change of 28.06 yuan/ton or 8.05%, while the profits of MTBE, formaldehyde, etc. remained unchanged [1] 4. Important Information - Domestic Futures: The main methanol contract MA2601 fluctuated at a high level, opening at 2373 yuan/ton, closing at 2382 yuan/ton, up 4 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 500463 lots, and the open interest was 795320, with increased volume and decreased open interest [1] - Foreign Information: The reference negotiation price of non - Iranian methanol shipments arriving in the far - future is 258 - 266 US dollars/ton, and there is insufficient active offering. The reference negotiation price of methanol shipments from other regions in the Middle East arriving in the far - future is + 0 - 0.6%, and sellers are reluctant to sell at low prices [1] 5. Trading Strategy - Wait for long - making opportunities. Methanol is in a low - level oscillation state. Although the upward driving force is limited in the short term, considering the low spot price and the approaching peak season of traditional downstream industries, there may be opportunities to go long later [1]