国泰君安期货商品研究晨报：黑色系列-20250904

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Iron ore: Wide - amplitude oscillation due to repeated macro - expectations [2][4] - Rebar: Wide - amplitude oscillation [2][6] - Hot - rolled coil: Wide - amplitude oscillation [2][7] - Ferrosilicon: Wide - amplitude oscillation [2][11] - Silicomanganese: Wide - amplitude oscillation [2][11] - Coke: Wide - amplitude oscillation [2][14] - Coking coal: Wide - amplitude oscillation [2][14] - Logs: Oscillation and repetition [2][16] 2. Core Views - The prices of various commodities such as iron ore, rebar, hot - rolled coil, ferrosilicon, silicomanganese, coke, coking coal, and logs are in a state of wide - amplitude oscillation or oscillation and repetition, with the trend intensity of all commodities being 0, indicating a neutral market outlook [2][4][7] 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs Iron Ore - Fundamental Tracking: The futures price of iron ore (12601) closed at 777.0 yuan/ton, up 5.5 yuan/ton with a 0.71% increase. The positions increased by 12,928 hands. Among spot prices, imported ores like Carajás fines (65%), PB (61.5%), etc. all rose by 6.0 yuan/ton, while domestic ores remained stable. Some basis and spread values also changed slightly [4] - Macro and Industry News: In August, China's Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index was 49.4%, up 0.1 percentage points from the previous month [4] Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - Fundamental Tracking: The futures prices of RB2510 and HC2510 decreased. The trading volume and positions of RB2510 decreased, and those of HC2510 also changed. Spot prices in most regions decreased slightly. Some basis and spread values changed, such as the basis of RB2510 increasing by 3 yuan/ton and that of HC2510 decreasing by 10 yuan/ton [7] - Macro and Industry News: In July 2025, China's steel exports were 983.6 million tons, up 1.6% from the previous month, with the export price up 2.2%. From January to July, cumulative exports were 6798.3 million tons, up 11.0% year - on - year, but the export price was down 10.3%. In the steel union's weekly data on August 28, production, inventory, and apparent demand of some steel products changed [8][9] Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - Fundamental Tracking: The futures prices of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese decreased. The trading volume and positions of different contracts changed. Spot prices of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese in Inner Mongolia were 5250 yuan/ton and 5680 yuan/ton respectively. Some basis and spread values changed, such as the ferrosilicon basis increasing by 8 yuan/ton [11] - Macro and Industry News: On September 3, the prices of 72 and 75 ferrosilicon in different regions were reported. In May and June 2025, India's silicomanganese export volume changed month - on - month and year - on - year [12][13] Coke and Coking Coal - Fundamental Tracking: The futures prices of JM2601 and J2601 decreased. The trading volume and positions of JM2601 increased, while those of J2601 changed slightly. Spot prices of coking coal and coke remained stable. Some basis and spread values changed, such as the basis of JM2601 in Shanxi increasing by 6.5 yuan/ton [14] - Macro and Industry News: In August, China's Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index was 49.4%, up 0.1 percentage points from the previous month [14] Logs - Fundamental Tracking: The closing prices of different log contracts decreased, and the trading volume and positions of some contracts changed significantly. Spot prices of most log varieties remained stable. Some basis and spread values changed, such as the spot - 2509 basis decreasing by 46.3% [17] - Macro and Industry News: In August, China's Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index was 49.4%, up 0.1 percentage points from the previous month [19]