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中辉期货日刊-20250904
Zhong Hui Qi Huo·2025-09-04 02:30
  1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: Bearish [1] - LPG: Cautiously bearish [1] - L: Bearish continuation [1] - PP: Bearish continuation [1] - PVC: Bearish continuation [1] - PX: Cautiously bearish [1] - PTA: Cautiously bullish [2] - Ethylene glycol: Cautiously bearish [3] - Methanol: Cautiously bearish [3] - Urea: Cautiously bullish [3] 2. Core Views of the Report - Crude oil: Supply surplus pressure is rising, and attention should be paid to the new round of OPEC+ production policy this weekend. Oil prices are under downward pressure in the medium and long term and may fall to around $60 [7]. - LPG: Affected by the cost - end crude oil, LPG is weak. The current supply - demand contradiction is not significant, and the price mainly follows the oil price [10]. - L: Cost support is weakening, and the supply - demand pattern is gradually turning into a double - strong one in September. It is recommended to try long positions on pullbacks [16]. - PP: The demand peak season is lackluster, and the supply will remain under pressure. The upward drive is insufficient, and it is advisable to wait and see [21]. - PVC: The spot price has stopped falling and stabilized, but the industrial chain has a large inventory accumulation pressure. It is recommended to be cautious about short - selling and wait and see [26]. - PX: The supply - demand tight balance is expected to ease, and the cost support is weakening. It is recommended to hold short positions carefully and look for opportunities to buy on pullbacks [30]. - PTA: The supply - demand is in a tight balance, and the market risk preference is increasing. It is recommended to take profit on short positions and look for opportunities to buy on pullbacks [33]. - Ethylene glycol: The supply - side pressure is expected to increase, and it is recommended to take profit on long positions at high prices and look for opportunities to short at high prices [37]. - Methanol: The fundamentals remain weak, and the cost support is weakening. It is recommended to look for opportunities to short the 01 contract at high prices [40]. - Urea: The domestic fundamentals are relatively loose, but there are upper and lower limits. It is recommended to focus on the low - long opportunities of the 01 contract [3] 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Crude Oil - Market Review: Overnight international oil prices fell. WTI dropped 2.47%, Brent dropped 2.23%, and SC rose 0.41% [6]. - Basic Logic: Short - term geopolitical disturbances are rising, the peak season is ending, OPEC+ production increases are putting pressure on oil prices, and in the medium and long term, oil prices may fall to around $60. Focus on the OPEC+ meeting on Sunday [7]. - Fundamentals: There is uncertainty about OPEC+ production increase. As of August 20, India's crude oil imports decreased. As of August 22, US commercial crude inventories decreased, and strategic crude reserves increased [8]. - Strategy Recommendation: Hold short positions. Pay attention to the support at around $60 for new shale oil wells. SC focuses on the range of [480 - 490] [9]. LPG - Market Review: On September 3, the PG main contract closed at 4429 yuan/ton, down 0.09% month - on - month [12]. - Basic Logic: The supply - demand contradiction of LPG is not significant, and the price mainly depends on the cost - end oil price. The cost - end still has room to decline. The supply has increased slightly, and the demand of some downstream industries has decreased [13]. - Strategy Recommendation: Hold short positions. PG focuses on the range of [4300 - 4400] [14]. L - Market Review: The L2601 contract closed at 7252 yuan/ton, down 18 yuan day - on - day; the North China Ning coal price was 7160 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan day - on - day; the warehouse receipts increased by 196 lots [18]. - Basic Logic: Cost support is weakening, and the supply - demand pattern will gradually turn into a double - strong one in September. The production is expected to increase by 40,000 tons, and the demand support is strengthening [19]. - Strategy Recommendation: Follow the market sentiment and fluctuate weakly in the short term. Try long positions on pullbacks. L focuses on the range of [7200 - 7300] [19]. PP - Market Review: The PP2601 contract closed at 6965 yuan/ton, down 9 yuan day - on - day; the East China wire drawing market price was 6895 yuan/ton, down 45 yuan day - on - day; the warehouse receipts increased by 1205 lots [23]. - Basic Logic: The demand peak season is lackluster, the inventory of traders has increased significantly, and the supply will remain under pressure. The upward drive is insufficient, but the absolute price is low, so there is also support at the bottom [24]. - Strategy Recommendation: The upward drive of the fundamentals is insufficient, and it is advisable to wait and see. PP focuses on the range of [6900 - 7000] [24]. PVC - Market Review: The V2601 contract closed at 4888 yuan/ton, down 6 yuan day - on - day; the Changzhou spot price was 4680 yuan/ton, unchanged day - on - day; the warehouse receipts increased by 612 lots [28]. - Basic Logic: The spot price has stopped falling and stabilized, but the industrial chain has a large inventory accumulation pressure. The supply is strong and the demand is weak, and the inventory has been accumulating for 10 consecutive weeks [28]. - Strategy Recommendation: Be cautious about short - selling due to low - valuation support and wait and see. V focuses on the range of [4750 - 4950] [28]. PX - Market Review: On August 29, the PX spot price was 7014 yuan/ton, up 125 yuan; the PX11 contract closed at 6966 yuan/ton, up 8 yuan [31]. - Basic Logic: The supply - side domestic and foreign devices have changed little, the demand - side PTA processing fee is low, and the device maintenance volume is high. The supply - demand tight balance is expected to ease, and the PXN is not low. The cost support is weakening due to the rumored OPEC+ oil production increase [31]. - Strategy Recommendation: Hold short positions carefully and look for opportunities to buy on pullbacks. PX511 focuses on the range of [6680 - 6810] [32]. PTA - Market Review: On August 29, the PTA East China price was 4740 yuan/ton, down 35 yuan; the TA01 contract closed at 4784 yuan/ton, down 8 yuan [34]. - Basic Logic: Recently, the devices have been overhauled as planned, and the overhaul volume is relatively high. The supply - side pressure is expected to increase in the future. The demand side shows signs of recovery. The 8 - 9 month supply - demand is in a tight balance, which is expected to ease in the fourth quarter. The cost support is weakening, but the market risk preference is increasing [35]. - Strategy Recommendation: Take profit on short positions and look for opportunities to buy on pullbacks. TA01 focuses on the range of [4650 - 4730] [36]. Ethylene Glycol - Market Review: On August 29, the ethylene glycol spot price in East China was 4512 yuan/ton, down 6 yuan; the EG01 contract closed at 4474 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan [38]. - Basic Logic: Domestic devices have slightly increased their loads, and overseas devices have changed little. The downstream demand is expected to be good, but the market expects the arrival volume to increase in the middle and late August, and the supply - side pressure will rise [38]. - Strategy Recommendation: Take profit on long positions at high prices and look for opportunities to short at high prices. EG01 focuses on the range of [4300 - 4350] [39]. Methanol - Market Review: On August 29, the methanol spot price in East China was 2266 yuan/ton, down 12 yuan; the main 01 contract closed at 2361 yuan/ton, down 12 yuan [40]. - Basic Logic: This week, the overhauled devices have gradually resumed, and the supply - side pressure has increased. The demand side is weak, the inventory is accumulating, and the cost support is weakening [41]. - Strategy Recommendation: Look for opportunities to short the 01 contract at high prices. MA01 focuses on the range of [2360 - 2390] [43]. Urea - Market Review: On August 29, the small - particle urea spot price in Shandong was 1720 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan; the urea main contract closed at 1746 yuan/ton, down 7 yuan [45]. - Basic Logic: This week, the daily urea production is expected to continue to decline, but new devices will be put into operation as planned, and the daily production is expected to gradually recover in mid - and early September. The domestic demand is weak, but exports are good. The inventory is accumulating, and the cost support is weakening [46]. - Strategy Recommendation: The short - term long - short game intensifies, with range fluctuations. Focus on the low - long opportunities of the 01 contract [3].