20250904申万期货有色金属基差日报-20250904

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Copper prices may experience short - term range - bound fluctuations due to a mix of factors including tight concentrate supply, high smelting output, and diverse downstream demand trends [2]. - Zinc prices may show short - term wide - range weak fluctuations as short - term supply - demand differences may tilt towards surplus [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog Copper - Night - session copper prices rose. Concentrate supply remains tight, squeezing smelting profits, but smelting output continues to grow. Downstream, the power industry has positive growth, PV installation has a sharp year - on - year increase but future growth may slow; auto production and sales are positive, home appliance output growth is slowing, and the real estate sector is weak [2]. - The previous domestic futures closing price was 80,070 yuan/ton, the domestic basis was 220 yuan/ton, the previous LME 3 - month contract closing price was 9,976 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium (CASH - 3M) was - 66.89 dollars/ton, LME inventory was 158,775 tons with a daily change of - 100 tons [2]. Zinc - Night - session zinc prices declined. Zinc concentrate processing fees have generally increased, turning smelting profits positive, and smelting output is expected to continue rising. Galvanized sheet inventory increased weekly. Infrastructure investment has a small positive cumulative growth rate, auto production and sales are positive, home appliance output growth is slowing, and the real estate sector is weak [2]. - The previous domestic futures closing price was 22,230 yuan/ton, the domestic basis was - 85 yuan/ton, the previous LME 3 - month contract closing price was 2,870 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium (CASH - 3M) was 18.78 dollars/ton, LME inventory was 55,600 tons with a daily change of - 275 tons [2]. Other Metals - Aluminum: The previous domestic futures closing price was 20,700 yuan/ton, the domestic basis was - 30 yuan/ton, the previous LME 3 - month contract closing price was 2,614 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium (CASH - 3M) was 3.60 dollars/ton, LME inventory was 479,600 tons with a daily change of - 1,450 tons [2]. - Nickel: The previous domestic futures closing price was 121,450 yuan/ton, the domestic basis was - 2,140 yuan/ton, the previous LME 3 - month contract closing price was 15,304 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium (CASH - 3M) was - 186.59 dollars/ton, LME inventory was 210,234 tons with a daily change of 390 tons [2]. - Lead: The previous domestic futures closing price was 16,820 yuan/ton, the domestic basis was - 125 yuan/ton, the previous LME 3 - month contract closing price was 1,996 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium (CASH - 3M) was - 43.09 dollars/ton, LME inventory was 258,025 tons with a daily change of - 1,525 tons [2]. - Tin: The previous domestic futures closing price was 272,700 yuan/ton, the domestic basis was 650 yuan/ton, the previous LME 3 - month contract closing price was 34,620 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium (CASH - 3M) was 87.00 dollars/ton, LME inventory was 2,175 tons with a daily change of 20 tons [2].