国泰君安期货商品研究晨报：能源化工-20250904

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No direct industry investment ratings are provided in the report. However, trend intensities are given for each product, indicating their short - to medium - term outlooks. For example, - 1 represents a weakly bearish outlook, 0 represents a neutral outlook, and - 2 represents a strongly bearish outlook [11][17][28] 2. Core Views of the Report - The report analyzes multiple energy and chemical products, highlighting their current market conditions, trends, and future outlooks. It notes that some products are facing cost pressures, supply - demand imbalances, and policy uncertainties, while others are influenced by seasonal factors and inventory levels [4][9][16] 3. Category - by - Category Summaries A. Aromatics and Polyester - Related Products - Para - Xylene (PX): Cost has collapsed, and the unilateral trend has weakened. It is recommended to do 11 - 01 positive spreads and 1 - 5 reverse spreads. Unilateral prices have limited downside space, and it is advisable to go long on dips before mid - September [4][9] - PTA: Followed the decline in crude oil prices. Continue to focus on the 11 - 1 positive spreads for the month - spread and long PTA short PX for processing fees [4][9] - MEG: With the decline of coal and crude oil prices, the valuation of ethylene glycol has declined, and the short - term trend is weak [4][9] B. Rubber and Synthetic Rubber - Rubber: The market is in a weakly bearish and oscillating pattern. In August, the prices of natural rubber and other raw materials fluctuated upwards, and the tire raw material cost increased. The full - steel tire market price was basically stable in August, and it is expected to remain stable in September [10][11][13] - Synthetic Rubber: In the short term, it is in an oscillating and pressured state. The inventory of high - cis polybutadiene rubber has increased slightly, and the short - term supply of butadiene is under pressure. However, the "anti - involution" policy provides some support to the overall valuation of commodities [14][15][16] C. Bitumen - The price is under pressure from OPEC's potential production increase, but geopolitical risks still exist. The total weekly output of domestic bitumen decreased by 3.3% week - on - week and increased by 3.3% year - on - year. Both factory and social inventories have decreased [19][20][31] D. Plastics - LLDPE: In the short term, it is weak, and in the medium term, it will be in an oscillating market. The demand for PE is improving due to the upcoming peak season for the agricultural film industry, but recent commodity sentiment has declined, affecting futures prices. The supply pressure may be alleviated in the East China region at the end of September [32][33] - PP: In the short term, it oscillates, and in the medium term, there is still downward pressure. Although short - term demand has improved, the cost side is weak, and the supply pressure will increase in the future [36][37] E. Alkali Products - Caustic Soda: It is not advisable to chase short positions. The market will still have wide - range oscillations in the short term. The current driving force for caustic soda is insufficient, and the market is in a state of expectation game. The main obstacles to the rise are export and alumina [40][41] - Soda Ash: The spot market has little change. The domestic soda ash market is weakly stable and oscillating, with flexible price transactions. The downstream demand fluctuates little, and the procurement sentiment is not good [63][65] F. Pulp and Paper - Pulp: It is in an oscillating state. The spot price of pulp is stable, and the futures market has a slight upward trend. The supply side has support from the new round of foreign offers, but the demand side is still weak [45][48] - Offset Printing Paper: It is oscillating at a low level with limited upward momentum [2] G. Glass and Methanol - Glass: The price of the original glass sheet is stable. The short - term supply - demand situation is relatively stable, and downstream orders have little change [50][51] - Methanol: It is in an oscillating pattern. The short - term fundamentals have significant contradictions, with continuous inventory accumulation at ports. However, the "anti - involution" policy provides some support to the overall valuation of commodities [53][56][57] H. Fertilizers - Urea: Spot trading is light, and futures are at a premium. In the short term, the export has not significantly driven the spot market, and the mid - term trend is still under pressure due to the expected inventory accumulation in the fourth quarter [58][59][60] I. Styrene - Styrene: It is bearish in the medium term. The short - term market is oscillating, but the mid - term fundamentals are weak due to factors such as inventory accumulation and the end of the "anti - involution" hype [61][62] J. LPG and Propylene - LPG: There is an expectation of OPEC+ production increase, leading to a decline in crude oil cost [68] - Propylene: High spot prices have suppressed buying interest, and attention should be paid to the risk of price decline [69] K. PVC - The market is still under pressure. The high - production and high - inventory structure is difficult to change, and exports may be affected by policy disturbances [79][80][81] L. Fuel Oil - Fuel Oil: It has been continuously retracing, and may continue to be weaker than low - sulfur fuel oil in the short term [82] - Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil: The downward trend continues, and the spread between high - and low - sulfur fuels in the overseas spot market is oscillating at a high level [82] M. Shipping Index - Container Shipping Index (European Line): It is in a wide - range oscillating state, with recent price declines in European and US - West shipping routes [84]