LPG：OPEC+增产预期，原油成本下挫，丙烯：现货高位抑制买兴，关注回落风险

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - LPG faces an expected increase in production from OPEC+ leading to a decline in crude oil costs [1] - For propylene, high spot prices are suppressing buying interest, and there is a risk of price decline [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - Futures Prices: PG2510 closed at 4,416 with a -0.11% daily increase and 4,381 at night with a -0.79% increase; PG2511 closed at 4,346 with a 0.09% daily increase and 4,308 at night with a -0.87% increase; PL2601 closed at 6,415 with a 0.16% daily increase and 6,387 at night with a -0.44% increase; PL2602 closed at 6,450 with a 0.28% daily increase and 6,419 at night with a -0.48% increase [2] - Trading Volume and Open Interest: PG2510 had a trading volume of 54,136 (down 27,754 from the previous day) and an open interest of 71,539 (down 3,109); PG2511 had a trading volume of 14,172 (down 3,362) and an open interest of 37,302 (up 1,207); PL2601 had a trading volume of 3,620 (down 801) and an open interest of 8,961 (up 815); PL2602 had a trading volume of 5 (down 29) and an open interest of 867 (up 5) [2] - Price Spreads: The spread between Guangzhou domestic gas and the PG10 contract was 14 (previous day: 39); the spread between Guangzhou imported gas and the PG10 contract was 84 (previous day: 79); the spread between Shandong propylene and the PL01 contract was 215 (previous day: 230); the spread between East China propylene and the PL01 contract was 160 (previous day: 170); the spread between South China propylene and the PL01 contract was 60 (previous day: 70) [2] - Industrial Chain Data: The PDH operating rate this week was 73.0% (last week: 75.7%); the MTBE operating rate was 63.5% (unchanged); the alkylation operating rate was 46.8% (last week: 49.0%) [2] 3.2 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity for LPG is 0, and for propylene is also 0, with values ranging from -2 (most bearish) to 2 (most bullish) [8] 3.3 Market News - On September 3, 2025, the October CP paper cargo for propane was 542 USD/ton, up 2 USD/ton from the previous day, and for butane was 515 USD/ton, up 1 USD/ton. The November CP paper cargo for propane was 551 USD/ton, unchanged from the previous day [9] - There are multiple domestic PDH device maintenance plans, including those from Henan Huasong New Material Technology Co., Ltd., Jiangsu Yanchang Zhongran Chemical Co., Ltd., etc. Also, Ningbo Jinfa's 1 (60) is expected to stop for maintenance for 3 weeks in early September [10] - There are domestic liquefied gas plant device maintenance plans, but specific details are not fully provided [11]