申银万国期货早间策略-20250904

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints - In 2025, domestic liquidity is expected to remain loose, and it is in a policy window period. More incremental policies may be introduced in the second half of the year to boost the real economy. External risks are gradually easing, and the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in September increases, further enhancing the attractiveness of RMB assets. The current market is in a resonance period of "policy bottom + capital bottom + valuation bottom", but it is necessary to adapt to the accelerating rotation of sectors and structural differentiation. The CSI 500 and CSI 1000 indexes, which have more technology - growth components, are more offensive with larger fluctuations but may bring higher returns. The SSE 50 and CSI 300, which have more dividend - blue - chip components, are more defensive with smaller fluctuations and relatively weaker price elasticity. Since July, the stock index has continued to rise with a large increase, showing signs of short - term adjustment, but the probability of the medium - to - long - term market continuation is high [2] Summary by Directory 1. Stock Index Futures Market - IF Contracts: The previous day's closing prices of IF contracts decreased, with the decline ranging from 42.80 to 53.00. The trading volume of the IF current - month contract was 120,700, and the open interest decreased by 9,043. The spread between the next - month and current - month contracts decreased [1] - IH Contracts: The previous day's closing prices of IH contracts increased, with the increase ranging from 6.60 to 10.60. The trading volume of the IH current - month contract was 53,059, and the open interest increased by 9,442. The spread between the next - month and current - month contracts remained unchanged [1] - IC Contracts: The previous day's closing prices of IC contracts decreased, with the decline ranging from 118.20 to 126.60. The trading volume of the IC current - month contract was 105,870, and the open interest increased by 11,825. The spread between the next - month and current - month contracts increased [1] - IM Contracts: The previous day's closing prices of IM contracts decreased, with the decline ranging from 118.80 to 136.40. The trading volume of the IM current - month contract was 218,061, and the open interest increased by 12,533. The spread between the next - month and current - month contracts increased [1] 2. Stock Index Spot Market - Major Indexes: The CSI 300 index decreased by 0.74%, the SSE 50 index increased by 0.39%, the CSI 500 index decreased by 2.09%, and the CSI 1000 index decreased by 2.50%. In terms of industries, the energy, optional consumption, major consumption, and real - estate finance sectors increased, while the raw materials, industrial, pharmaceutical, and information technology sectors decreased [1] 3. Futures - Spot Basis - The basis of IF contracts decreased, the basis of IH contracts increased, the basis of IC contracts decreased, and the basis of IM contracts decreased [1] 4. Other Domestic and Overseas Indexes - Domestic Indexes: The Shanghai Composite Index increased by 1.51%, the Shenzhen Component Index increased by 2.26%, the Small and Medium - Sized Board Index increased by 1.79%, and the ChiNext Index increased by 3.00% [1] - Overseas Indexes: The Hang Seng Index increased by 1.94%, the Nikkei 225 increased by 0.41%, the S&P 500 decreased by 0.43%, and the DAX Index decreased by 0.37% [1] 5. Macro Information - The joint working group of the Ministry of Finance and the central bank held its second meeting to discuss issues related to the bond market and pledged to promote the stable and healthy development of the bond market [2] - This year, 12 provinces have raised the minimum wage standard, with most provinces increasing the monthly minimum wage standard or the highest - grade monthly minimum wage standard by about 8% - 12% [2] - The Chinese Ministry of Commerce ruled that some US fiber - optic producers and exporters evaded anti - dumping measures, and imposed anti - dumping duties on relevant companies [2] - A Hong Kong legislator pointed out that the stablecoin regulations in Hong Kong are strict, with few licenses issued, and a license may be issued early next year. The legislative process for offline OTC will also be initiated next year [2] 6. Industry Information - By 2027, relevant departments plan to build a number of agricultural machinery verification platforms and application centers [2] - In August, the second - hand housing market in Beijing increased, the second - hand housing market in Shenzhen remained above the "boom - bust line" for six consecutive months, and the second - hand housing market in Guangzhou slowed down [2] - In August, the retail sales of new - energy passenger vehicles in China increased year - on - year and month - on - month, with a penetration rate of 55.3% [2] - Large paper mills such as Nine Dragons Paper, Shanying International, Lee & Man Paper, and Wuzhou Special Paper announced price increases in early September [2]