申万期货品种策略日报：聚烯烃（LL、PP）-20250904

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - Polyolefin futures continued to be weak. The spot market of linear LL and拉丝PP remained stable for Sinopec and PetroChina. Currently, from a fundamental perspective, market enthusiasm has cooled, and the polyolefin spot market is still mainly driven by supply and demand. Summer maintenance is in balance, and inventory is being slowly digested. At the beginning of the month, polyolefin spot prices were generally weak. After consecutive declines in futures, whether the stabilization of the futures market can drive the stabilization of the spot market remains to be seen [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - Prices and Changes: For LL, the previous day's closing prices for January, May, and September contracts were 7247, 7240, and 7185 respectively, with price changes of -5, -4, and -17 and percentage changes of -0.07%, -0.06%, and -0.24%. For PP, the previous day's closing prices for January, May, and September contracts were 6954, 6965, and 6860 respectively, with price changes of 11, 7, and 2 and percentage changes of 0.16%, 0.10%, and 0.03% [2]. - Trading Volume and Open Interest: The trading volumes of LL for January, May, and September contracts were 212912, 4688, and 311 respectively, and the open interests were 490459, 31552, and 8527 respectively, with open interest changes of 9091, -45, and -104. For PP, the trading volumes for January, May, and September contracts were 186905, 6072, and 738 respectively, and the open interests were 579733, 45203, and 5589 respectively, with open interest changes of 6984, 1282, and -259 [2]. - Spreads: For LL, the current spreads of January - May, May - September, and September - January were 7, 55, and -62 respectively, compared to previous values of 8, 42, and -50. For PP, the current spreads of January - May, May - September, and September - January were -11, 105, and -94 respectively, compared to previous values of -15, 100, and -85 [2]. Spot Market - Raw Materials and Semi - finished Products: The current prices of methanol futures, Shandong propylene, South China propane, PP recycled materials, North China powder materials, and mulch film were 2385 yuan/ton, 6630 yuan/ton, 589 dollars/ton, 5600 yuan/ton, 6770 yuan/ton, and 8800 yuan/ton respectively. The previous values were 2375 yuan/ton, 6645 yuan/ton, 583 dollars/ton, 5600 yuan/ton, 6770 yuan/ton, and 8800 yuan/ton [2]. - Mid - stream Products: The current price ranges of LL in the East China, North China, and South China markets were 7200 - 7700 yuan/ton, 7150 - 7450 yuan/ton, and 7400 - 7750 yuan/ton respectively, which were the same as the previous values. For PP, the current price ranges in the East China, North China, and South China markets were 6800 - 7000 yuan/ton, 6800 - 6950 yuan/ton, and 6750 - 7050 yuan/ton respectively, with the North China market's previous range being 6800 - 7000 yuan/ton and the other two markets remaining the same [2]. News - It is expected that the OPEC+ meeting on Sunday will consider further increasing the production target in October. International oil prices rose during the session and then tumbled sharply. On Wednesday (September 3), the settlement price of the WTI crude oil futures contract for October 2025 on the New York Mercantile Exchange was $63.97 per barrel, down $1.62 or 2.47% from the previous trading day, with a trading range of $63.72 - $65.72. The settlement price of the Brent crude oil futures contract for November 2025 on the London Intercontinental Exchange was $67.60 per barrel, down $1.54 or 2.23% from the previous trading day, with a trading range of $67.36 - $69.24 [2].