长江期货市场交易指引-20250904

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Macro - Finance: Index futures are long - term bullish, recommended to buy on dips; Treasury bonds are recommended to hold off [1][5]. - Black Building Materials: Coking coal and rebar are for range trading; Glass is recommended to buy on dips [1][7][9]. - Non - ferrous Metals: Copper is recommended to hold long positions moderately at low levels; Aluminum is recommended to buy on dips after pull - backs; Nickel is recommended to hold off or short on rallies; Tin, gold, and silver are for range trading [1][11][16][18]. - Energy Chemicals: PVC is expected to oscillate weakly; Caustic soda and urea are expected to oscillate; Soda ash is for short 01 and long 05 arbitrage; Styrene is expected to oscillate weakly; Rubber is expected to oscillate strongly; Methanol and polyolefins are expected to oscillate widely [1][21][24][27][30][32][33]. - Cotton Textile Industry Chain: Cotton and cotton yarn, PTA are expected to oscillate; Apples are expected to oscillate strongly; Red dates are expected to oscillate weakly [1][37][38][39]. - Agricultural and Livestock: Hogs and eggs are recommended to short on rallies; Corn is for range trading; Soybean meal's upside is limited; Oils are expected to adjust at high levels [1][42][44][45][47][49]. Core Views - The A - share market is expected to maintain an upward - trending oscillation in the medium - to - long - term, with the "15th Five - Year Plan" and policy reforms likely to release positive effects. In the short - term, attention should be paid to the support level of the Shanghai Composite Index [5]. - In the black building materials sector, the supply and demand of coking coal and rebar are complex, and glass demand may pick up in the short - term [7][8][9]. - Non - ferrous metals are affected by macro factors and supply - demand relationships. Copper and aluminum may have upward potential due to demand growth, while nickel may be under pressure [11][12][16]. - Energy chemicals are facing challenges in supply - demand balance, with PVC and styrene under pressure, and rubber showing strength [21][27]. - In the cotton textile industry chain, the supply - demand situation of cotton and PTA is complex, and apples may perform strongly [37][38]. - Agricultural and livestock products are influenced by supply - demand and seasonal factors. Hogs and eggs are under pressure, while oils may adjust at high levels [42][44][49]. Summaries by Categories Macro - Finance - Index Futures: On Wednesday, the A - share market was volatile and differentiated. The market trading activity remained high, and it is expected to oscillate upwards in the medium - to - long - term. Short - term attention should be paid to the support of the Shanghai Composite Index's 20 - day moving average, and long positions in IH and IF with performance certainty and high dividends can be considered on dips [5]. - Treasury Bonds: On Wednesday, both the equity and bond markets had increased volatility. The bond market's yield accelerated downward after the equity market reached a short - term inflection point. In the short - term, it is recommended to hold off and pay attention to the trading volume and intraday volatility of the equity market [5]. Black Building Materials - Coking Coal and Coke: Safety supervision has tightened, and the coal market is in a stalemate. Port prices are falling, and it is recommended to trade in the range of 1030 - 1230 for coking coal [7][8]. - Rebar: On Wednesday, rebar futures prices oscillated weakly. The supply and demand situation is complex, with an increase in production and inventory. It is expected to fall first and then rise in September, and range trading is recommended in the range of 3000 - 3300 for RB2601 [8]. - Glass: Supply is relatively stable, and inventory has decreased in some regions due to increased downstream replenishment. Demand has improved at the end of the month, and it is recommended to buy on dips, with attention paid to the support level of 1110 - 1120 for the 01 contract [9][10]. Non - ferrous Metals - Copper: This week, copper prices were mainly affected by macro factors, oscillating in a high - level range. Supply has increased, and demand is resilient. It is recommended to hold long positions moderately at low levels, with a short - term operating range of 78500 - 80500 yuan/ton [11]. - Aluminum: The bauxite supply is affected by the rainy season in Guinea. Alumina production capacity has decreased slightly, and electrolytic aluminum production capacity has increased. Demand is picking up in the peak season. It is recommended to buy on dips or engage in long AD and short AL arbitrage [12]. - Nickel: The nickel market is in a state of oversupply in the medium - to - long - term. Nickel ore prices are stable, and nickel iron and stainless steel prices are under pressure. It is expected to oscillate weakly [16][17]. - Tin: Domestic refined tin production has increased, and tin concentrate imports have decreased. The semiconductor industry is expected to recover, and it is recommended to trade in the range of 260,000 - 280,000 yuan/ton for the SHFE tin 10 contract [17]. - Gold and Silver: Affected by Trump's influence on the Fed's independence and Powell's dovish speech, the market's expectation of a September interest rate cut has increased. Precious metals prices have rebounded. It is recommended to buy on dips after price corrections, with reference ranges of 775 - 820 for the SHFE gold 10 contract and 9000 - 9800 for the SHFE silver 10 contract [18][19]. Energy Chemicals - PVC: PVC is facing high inventory and uncertain export sustainability. Supply pressure is high, and it is expected to oscillate weakly in the short - term, with attention paid to the 5000 - level pressure for the 01 contract [21][23]. - Caustic Soda: Affected by warehouse receipts and short - term spot price peaks, the futures price has fallen. Supply is decreasing, and demand is increasing. It is expected to oscillate in the short - term, with attention paid to the 2650 - level support for the 01 contract [24][26]. - Styrene: Crude oil prices are under pressure, and the supply - demand of pure benzene is deteriorating. Styrene inventory is abundant, and demand is limited. It is expected to oscillate weakly, with attention paid to the 7200 - level pressure [26][27]. - Rubber: Raw material prices are high, and inventory is decreasing. The market price is stable and strong. It is expected to oscillate strongly in the short - term, with attention paid to the 15600 - level support [27][29]. - Urea: Supply has increased, and demand is weak. Inventory is accumulating. It is expected to be weak first and then strong in the short - term, with attention paid to the 1680 - 1720 support [30][31]. - Methanol: The supply of methanol has increased, and the demand from the methanol - to - olefins industry is expected to rise. Inventory has increased. It is expected to oscillate [32][33]. - Polyolefins: The traditional consumption peak season is coming, and downstream demand is expected to improve. Polyethylene supply pressure has eased, while polypropylene production is increasing. It is expected to have support at the bottom, with L2601 focusing on the 7200 - 7500 range and PP2601 on the 6900 - 7200 range [33]. - Soda Ash: The spot market is sluggish, and supply is expected to remain high. Demand from photovoltaic glass is improving, while float glass sales are weakening. It is recommended to conduct short 01 and long 05 arbitrage [34][36]. Cotton Textile Industry Chain - Cotton and Cotton Yarn: According to the USDA report, the global cotton supply - demand situation has improved. However, the increase in new cotton production may put pressure on prices. Hedging preparations are recommended [37]. - PTA: PTA inventory has decreased, and there is a possibility that OPEC will suspend production increases in September. The price is expected to oscillate strongly in the short - term, with attention paid to the 4900 - level pressure [38]. - Apples: Early - maturing apples are on the market, and the price is higher than last year. The inventory apple market is stable. The price is expected to remain strong [38]. - Red Dates: Xinjiang jujubes are entering the sugar - increasing stage. The market price is stable, but consumption is weak. The price is expected to oscillate weakly [39][41]. Agricultural and Livestock - Hogs: The pig price is under pressure due to large supply. The 01 contract may be supported by the peak - season expectation, while the 03 and 05 contracts are weaker. Short positions can be considered on rallies, and long 05 and short 03 arbitrage can be paid attention to [42][43]. - Eggs: The spot price may rebound slightly, but the supply is sufficient. The near - month contracts may fall to correct the premium. Short positions can be considered on rallies for the 10 and 11 contracts, and long - term contracts can be observed [44]. - Corn: It is the period of new and old crop connection, and supply is sufficient. The 11 - contract valuation should not be overly bearish. Short positions can be considered on rallies, and 1 - 5 reverse arbitrage can be paid attention to [45][46]. - Soybean Meal: The domestic arrival of soybeans is abundant from September to October, and prices are under pressure from state reserves sales. However, cost support limits the downside. Attention should be paid to the 3030 support of the M2601 contract [47][49]. - Oils: Short - term support levels for soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil 01 contracts are 8200 - 8300, 9200 - 9100, and 9700 - 9600 respectively. Long positions can be considered after the correction [49][54].