Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2) Core View of the Report The report suggests that it is not advisable to chase short positions in caustic soda. The market will remain volatile in the short - term. Currently, caustic soda has insufficient upward drivers, but there is also no immediate downward driver for the spot. The futures are at a discount to the spot, and the valuation of the near - month contracts already incorporates the expectations of a decline in 32% caustic soda spot prices and delivery discounts [1][2]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - 01 contract futures price is 2612, the cheapest deliverable in Shandong is 870, the basis is 2719, and the spot price of 32% caustic soda is 107 [1]. Spot News - Taking Shandong as a benchmark, the liquid caustic soda market in the province remained stable today. Due to the summit and military parade, transportation was hindered, causing some enterprises' inventories to increase. However, order shipments temporarily supported the market. Attention should be paid to the delivery volume of major downstream industries and the inventory changes of caustic soda plants [1]. Market Condition Analysis - Upward Driver Constraints: The main obstacles to the rise of caustic soda are exports and alumina. In terms of exports, new capacity from Vinythai and high supplies from Japan and South Korea have led to sufficient supply in Southeast Asia. Export profits have not expanded, export orders have not improved, and the price difference between 50% and 32% caustic soda is weak. Regarding alumina, the high - production and high - inventory situation has continuously compressed profits, and marginal capacity supply may be affected by profits in the future. Although there are expected new capacities of 3.6 million tons in Guangxi by the end of this year and 2 million tons from Orient Hope at the beginning of next year, before the inventory - building starts, the market is difficult to achieve simultaneous movement of futures and spot [1][2]. - Overall Situation: Currently, there is an expectation game in the caustic soda market. Before alumina starts inventory - building for new production and export conditions improve, the upward driver is insufficient. However, there is also no downward driver for the spot. In terms of valuation, futures are at a discount to the spot, and the near - month contracts' valuation already includes the expectations of a decline in 32% caustic soda spot prices and delivery discounts, so it is not advisable to chase short positions [1][2]. Trend Intensity The trend intensity of caustic soda is 0, indicating a neutral trend [1][3].
烧碱:不宜追空,市场短期仍宽幅震荡
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo·2025-09-04 03:09